MLB Picks: Who's Hot & Who's Not to Begin the 2015 MLB Playoffs?

Doug Upstone

Monday, October 5, 2015 1:00 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 5, 2015 1:00 PM GMT

When attempting to make a futures wager for the MLB postseason, it's best to have everything you need to know before placing your MLB picks if you want to win.

Guessing is just that, instead, come the party as a baseball handicapper prepared to beat the MLB odds.

While this method is not full proof, it does provide insight about each of the playoffs teams and how often have we heard watching these games, " This team ____________ has really been playing excellent baseball and is 24-10 since August 19th." We hear this and raise our eyebrows and think, "Wish I would have known that before."

Hot and cold streaks can happen at any time and their timing is extremely important. Just ask the Los Angeles Angels who had the best record in baseball last year, but whose offense went cold the last week of the season to finish 2-5 and were swept by Kansas City 3-0 and out of the postseason before even getting started. Or who will ever forget the 2007 Colorado Rockies, who were 77-72 on Sept.16th, finished the regular season on 12-1 spurt and won every National League playoff game before (unreal 20-1 run) before crashing in the World Series against the champion Boston Red Sox.

As noted, the hottest team does not always win, but neither does the club with the best record, as last year's two wild card teams proved. If you are placing MLB picks, it can only help to know the numbers.

From 9/16  
Cubs 14-4
Cardinals 10-6
Blue Jays 11-7
Rangers 11-7
Pirates 11-7
Royals 11-7
Astros 9-8
Yankees 8-10
Dodgers 6-9
Mets 7-9

 

Sept. 16th to Close of Regular Season
Clearly the Chicago Cubs enter the postseason as the hottest team in baseball and even we agree it is hard to swallow the teams with the second and third best records in the majors will meet in the NL Wild Card one game elimination.

One can certainly make the case teams like Kansas City, the New York Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers have not had anything to play for other than working towards the inevitable of clinching their respective divisions, but as mentioned about the Angels and any other of a number of teams, you prefer to be at your best here.

From 9/1  
Cubs 23-9
Rangers 20-12
Blue Jays 19-14
Pirates 19-14
Dodgers 18-13
Mets 17-13
Cardinals 18-15
Royals 15-16
Yankees 15-17
Astros 13-17

 

Sept.1st to Close of Regular Season
This provides a longer overview of the last month of the season and often is a more accurate assessment of any team in the playoffs, as compared to a shorter window as discussed above. Once again the Cubs are right at the top. Now we realize anything can happen in a one-game playoff, this is why we have to take it for what is worth.

There is definitely more to think about when it comes to the American League when looking over the betting odds. Toronto finished with a flourish as did Texas. This kind of sustaining power takes out possible schedule advantages or disadvantages and speaks to the teams focus and confidence when it matters most.

A great example of this is the 2005 Chicago White Sox, who won the World Series. The White Sox were the best team in baseball all season, but after winning seven straight to start September, they lost 10 of 14 and questions began to arise. But the Chi-Sox righted the ship to finish the regular season 7-2 and buzzed through the postseason 11-1, proving their dominance.

 

From 8/15  
Cubs 31-17
Rangers 31-17
Blue Jays 29-16
Pirates 31-18
Mets 27-17
Cardinals  29-20
Royals 25-20
Dodgers 25-19
Yankees 24-24
Astros 23-23

 

Aug.15th to Close of Regular Season
The distinction of looking into these numbers is identify the who has really been on top of their game and proven over the long haul and who has and has not been building towards the playoffs.

Toronto's aggressive stance in making roster moves added what the Blue Jays needed and instilled a confidence into this team and having a +221 run differential tells there story of hitting and pitching.

Also, clubs like St. Louis, Texas, Pittsburgh the Cubs and the Mets, all won long term showcasing why they deserved to be here.

Conversely, if you are using Heritage or any other sportsbooks for betting baseball, you have to question what the New York Yankees, L.A. Dodgers, Houston or possibly even Kansas City will accomplish in October, based on how they have been playing.

No absolutes, but certainly worth knowing.

comment here