White Sox (Danks) @ Red Sox (Peavy) 7:10 PM ET
Game # 921-922
Boston won the opening game of the series last night for our baseball picks, jumping out to a 4-0 lead and hanging on for the 4-3 victory. The win improved Boston to 80-56 on the season. Boston enters today 3.5 games in front of the Tampa Bay Rays for the lead in the AL East. Despite the loss last night the White Sox have played very well of late going 10-3 over their last 13 games. Chicago is last in the AL Central with a record of 56-77 and 22.0 games behind the first place Detroit Tigers.
The Starting Pitchers
Jake Peavy (10-5/3.59 ERA) takes the mound tonight for Boston and is coming off his best start as a member of the Red Sox. Peavy went the distance while allowing just 3 hits and walking only 1 in a 9-1 win at Dodger Stadium last Sunday night. The former Cy Young winner has bounced back nicely after a somewhat shaky start to his Boston career. Peavy has been brilliant in his last 3 starts posting a 1.74 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP and a better than 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Peavy is a perfect 6-0 in his home starts this season with an excellent 2.59 ERA. Ironically Peavy will be facing the team (White Sox) he started the season with before coming over to Boston in a trade on July 30th. This will also be Peavy’s first career start versus the White Sox. Peavy has seen 63 of his 96 career starts (excluding pushes) in home night games go under the total.
The White Sox counter with the veteran southpaw John Danks (4-10/4.15 ERA). Danks has a 3-5 career record versus Boston with a 4.98 ERA. Danks has won his last 2 starts and pitched very well in the process posting a stellar 1.29 ERA. The White Sox have gone just 2-7 on the road this season with Danks as their starter. The lefty has been prone to giving up the long ball this season allowing 23 home runs in 117.0 innings. The total on this game today according to MLB odds is 8.5. Danks has seen 11 of his 14 starts this season go under when the total when the total is 7.0 to 8.5. Danks has also seen 17 of his 23 starts the last 3 seasons go under the total when he’s facing an opponent with a winning record.
Figures Don’t Lie and Liars Don’t Figure
The Red Sox are a very profitable 43-24 this season at Fenway Park. Boston is hitting a robust .286 as a team in their 67 home games. They enter tonight having won 5 of their last 6 overall. Boston has gone a sizzling 60-33 (.645) as a favorite of -110 or more according to MLB odds statistics. The Red Sox have gone over the total in 14 of 20 games in 2013 when facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .380 to .460.
The White Sox enter tonight with a miserable 24-42 record on the road. Ironically last night’s loss ended a season best 6-game road winning streak. Chicago has gone under the total in 5 of their last 6 and 11 of their last 14 games. When facing a right-handed starting pitcher in 2013 Chicago has seen 55 of those 93 games (59.1%) go under the total. They’ve also seen 15 of their 19 games go under the total in the last 3 seasons after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games.
Be sure to check out SBR's article for picks regarding the Cardinals & Pirates this weekend~
Run-Line Super Angle
Play against any American League road underdog of +1.5 on the run-line with a money line price of +165 to -135 when they’re averaging 4.2 or less runs per game on the season, the bullpen has a WHIP of 1.35 to 1.45 on the year, and they’re facing an opponent that has a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or less. Whenever you fade the road underdog on the run-line in this exact situation, you would be 89-59 (60.1%) since the start of the 1997 season. According to MLB odds the White are +1.5 (-120) on the run-line today.
Free MLB Pick: Boston -1.5 (+100) on the run-line.