MLB Picks: Where's The Best Value In The Mets vs. Rockies Game?

Jason Lake

Sunday, May 15, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Sunday, May. 15, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Jacob deGrom is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but if you want to bet on his New York Mets to beat the Colorado Rockies, the MLB odds will charge you extra.

Jacob deGrom has been through a lot recently. He can probably handle whatever Coors Field has in store for him this Sunday (4:10 p.m. ET) when he starts for the New York Mets in the finale of a three-game set versus the Colorado Rockies. Emotionally handle, that is. Whether deGrom can keep the ball in the yard is another matter.

We know for sure that Tyler Chatwood has been getting hammered at Coors. He's allowed 15 earned runs this year; 14 of those were at home. It's enough of a pitching mismatch on paper that the Mets are -140 road faves on our MLB odds board as we go to press, with a massive total of 10 runs (Over +110) to boot. Our consensus reports show 56 percent of early bettors grabbing the Over. Shall we join them?


The Air Up There
Whoa there. Granted, deGrom (2.68 FIP) has never had the pleasure of pitching at Coors Field – where the altitude isn't the only thing that's high™. The park factors in Denver are just ridiculous: 1.563 for runs, first in the majors for the fifth year in a row. Coors Field has already wrecked the first two pitchers New York sent to the mound in this series, Matt Harvey (five runs in 5.2 innings) and Logan Verrett (seven runs in 2.2 innings).

Here's the thing: Both those games went Under the posted total. The Mets, on the other hand, lost both games as favorites to fall back below the poverty line at 21-15 and –0.54 betting units. Colorado is now 3.61 units in the black on a record of 18-18. There's betting value in this underdog. FiveThirtyEight projects New York to win Sunday's game 55 percent of the time, which works out to -122 on our dead-sexy SBR Betting Odds Converter. Value, my friends.


Fantasy Corner
Okay, so we'll be taking our chances with Chatwood (4.02 FIP) and his awful home/away splits. But Mets supporters will be paying a premium to take their chances with deGrom. Having said that, we think this would be a good spot to add some New York lumber to your fantasy team. You might even be able to add OF Curtis Granderson (.718 OPS), who's owned in 69.9 percent of ESPN leagues. He went 1-for-3 with a homer against Chatwood in their last and only meeting.

Before we put this MLB pick in the oven, let's point out the obvious: This is far from a five-star deadbolt lock. There's a lot of missing information to deal with here, particularly with deGrom and Coors Field, but also with the Mets and Chatwood. Keeping your bet size small would be a very good idea in this situation. Otherwise, good hunting, and may the sphere be with you.

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Free MLB Pick: Rockies +135
Best Line Offered: at Heritage
Record: 7-6 ML, 1-0 Totals (+1.89 units)

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