MLB Picks: Wednesday's Profitable Pitchers

John Ryan

Tuesday, May 6, 2014 8:11 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 6, 2014 8:11 PM UTC

In yesterday's report, I covered the Dodgers vs. Orioles game. The current lines are showing the Dodgers as favorites. To date I am now 4-1 and +3.25 units/unit wagered with these reports and 5* Titan releases. Read on for more valuable insight.

Seattle at Oakland Game 1 
Looking ahead to the Wednesday card, I see multiple betting opportunities. In Game 1 of a double header I like the Seattle Mariners boxed with Felix Hernandez set to start at 3:35 PM ET. Seattle is off to a 15-15 start and is 10-9 on the road while the Astros are 19-13 and are just 6-7 in home tilts. Seattle sits in fourth place trailing the AL West Division leading Oakland A's by three games. Oakland leads all teams outscoring their opponents by 49 runs. Seattle has scored as many as they have allowed to their opponents. However, the fact is we are getting an elite starter in Hernandez on the hill in what I anticipate to show Seattle favored at about -145.  

No matter the line, this play is valid as a 5* Titan release, and only weather or Hernandez not starting would invalidate this opportunity.  

Felix Hernandez has made seven starts, and has gone at least 6 innings of each of them with the exception of one start. He has posted a 2.53 ER and has allowed opponents to hit at just a 0.202 batting average. Over the last three seasons, he has posted a 3.20 ERA and allowed a 0.244 opponent batting average spanning 97 starts striking out 661 batters in 670 innings of work. He has allowed a 0.213 batting average and 0.281 slugging percentage to the current members of the Oakland A's in their respective careers spanning 324 at-bats. Not one hitter is batting above 0.330. Nine players of the 15 who have faced him are batting below 0.200.  



Philadelphia at Toronto  
In another play graded as a 5* Titan release, I like Toronto with Mark Buehrle boxed as the starter when they take on the Philadelphia Phillies in inter-league action set to start at 7:07 PM ET. These two teams are currently playing a two-game set in Philadelphia with Toronto winning the first game 3-0. The Phillies offense has really struggled to get untracked and getting shut-out is certainly not an indication that their bats will come alive.  

Toronto will be facing one of the best left-handed starters in Cliff Lee, but run support is always a big issue with the Phillies. They rank 26th scoring just 118 runs, 12th with a 0.254 batting average, 17th with a 0.315 on-base-percentage, and 19th with a 0.378 slugging-percentage. Moreover, the late inning and middle relief has not been solid for the Phillies. Their closer Papelbon has done a great job, though, converting all but one of his save opportunities. The pitching staff as a whole ranks 27th allowing a 0.256 opponent batting average. So, the Phillies are just not a good team, and are fortunate to be at 15-15 on the season.  

Toronto starter Buehrle is 5-1 in 6 starts with a solid 2.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He went 6 2/3 innings allowing 7 hits, and 2 ER on 94 pitches in a 7-3 win at Kansas City. He has allowed a 0.233 batting average with just 2 HR to the current members of the Phillies in their respective careers spanning 120 AB. Take Toronto to the bank when placing your MLB picks!


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