MLB Picks: Weather Factors Makes Mariners vs. Indians A 'Under' 7.5

Drew Martin

Tuesday, April 19, 2016 5:56 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 19, 2016 5:56 PM UTC

With Carrasco’s success, both teams not producing offensively, and Wade Miley coming from the left side, all signs are pointing towards a low scoring affair. View our MLB pick here.

Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians welcome the Seattle Mariners to Progressive Field tonight for the opening game of a three game series. Both teams have slightly underperformed considering their preseason expectations, but each team is still within reach of the .500 mark.  The Mariners struggles have come at home, with the team only having secured one win in six tries at Safeco. Similarly, the Indians have only managed two wins in five tries at home, making this an intriguing matchup. 

Today’s starter for the Indians, Carlos Carrasco, has been stellar this year, posting an even 1.00 WHIP through 13 innings. Conversely, Wade Miley, who gets the start for the visiting Mariners, has had a rough go of it with north of an 8.00 ERA through 12 innings pitched, but a few key metrics point to Miley having a bounce back performance today and keeping the Indians’ struggling lineup in check.

The Indians have had issues offensively over the last week, posting a below average team OPS of .694 in the last seven days. Cleveland has desperately missed the bat of Michael Brantley, and team RBI leader Carlos Santana is 2-for-25 with six strikeouts in the last seven games. Perhaps even more important when considering tonight’s matchup is that the Indians have posted an anemic team OPS of .551 against lefties this year. Miley will be the seventh lefty starter the Indians have faced in 11 games this season, making the sample size big enough that the struggles are not a statistical outlier, but a trend that indicates that the Cleveland lineup doesn’t have the ability to consistently produce against south-paws going forward.

While Wade Miley has been hit hard in his first two appearances this year, both outings were against a very talented Texas Rangers lineup that had the benefit of seeing Miley twice in a five day stretch. Miley’s velocity has been steady, and with no free passes and 14 strikeouts through 12 innings of work, there are positive signs for Miley in the future.


Betting Analysis
On the other side, Carlos Carrasco takes the hill in his home park, and is coming off a strong eight-inning win over Tampa Bay with eight strikeouts and one run allowed. The Rays and Mariners have similar lineup metrics, both below average in the American League. The 29 year-old Venezuelan is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in two career appearances against Seattle, and today he faces a lineup that has struggled of late. The Mariners have posted a .618 team OPS over the last seven days, and 3B Kyle Seager is ice cold, having gone 0-for-17 over the last four contests to drop his average to .119.

With Carrasco’s success, both teams not producing offensively, and Wade Miley coming from the left side, all signs are pointing towards a low scoring affair. The lack of offense should be aided by the game time temperature which is forecasted below 50 degrees, and both bullpens being fairly well rested having gotten yesterday off if either starter runs into trouble. Considering all of these factors, I recommend a wager on the MLB odds of under 7.5 runs as your MLB pick.

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Free MLB Pick: Under 7.5
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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