After having an offensive explosion yesterday in the ALCS between the Royals & Blue Jays I'm expecting a little bit more of a normal game today with some good pitching.
MLB odds makers came out with this total at nine which makes perfect sense considering yesterday's game. Still that is a little bit on the high side so for one of my MLB picks I'm going to back under the total in this matchup. Right now there is still some pretty good odds on taking under the total like at 5Dimes (-104).
Chris Young gets the call for Kansas City and comes in with a 3.06 ERA, 1.09 whip, 83 strikeouts, and 11-6 record. He got in a little bit of action in the postseason against the Houston Astros allowing three hits in four innings with a home run. I don't anticipate the veteran to be two rattled against the tough lineup in front of him in Toronto, and on the road this year he has been solid with a 2.52 ERA and batters hitting just .189 against him. In his one appearance against Toronto he was decent allowing three earned runs off of five hits in six innings. Since the break he really hasn'taven't got a lot of starts, but as mentioned he is a veteran, and although I don't expect him to dominate, I do expect them to have a decent enough start to help us get under this total.
Kansas City hits .268 as a team, average 4.52 runs per game, and have an OPS of .736. As I've mentioned in previous columns they rank in the top 10 in most major offensive categories. So far in this series they have swung the bats well but they are in a tough matchup today against a pitcher that they have had no success against this season.
Toronto Blue Jays
R.A. Dickey takes the mound for the Blue Jays and comes in with a 3.91 ERA, 1.19 whip, 126 strikeouts, and in 11-11 record. The 40-year-old veteran pitched decent in his one start against the Rangers allowing one earned run off a five hits in just over four innings. The knuckleballer has been tough at home with a 3.11 ERA and batters just hitting .197 against him. In his one start against Kansas City this year he was lights out allowing zero earned runs off of two hits in seven innings.
Toronto hits .267 as a team, average 5.48 runs per game, and have an OPS of .793. Their explosion yesterday is not something I take lightly in backing the under when it comes to this game. But nine is a pretty big number in the playoffs even with this great offense of the Blue Jays. I am anticipating them to have some good quality at-bats and score a few runs but for the combined score along with the Royals to stay under nine.
For one of your MLB picks I suggest backing under the total in this game four. It seems that runs were so easy to come by yesterday that the same thing will happen today, but that is simply not the case. If Young to keep the ball down and in the park, and it Dickey can continue his stellar home performance and against the Royals we should see a game tight that goes down to the wire.
MLB Picks: Royals & Blue Jays Under 9 (-115) at BetOnline