MLB Picks: Value Resides With Diamondbacks +165 & Over 7.5 vs. Dodgers

Darin Zank

Monday, September 21, 2015 3:14 PM GMT

Monday, Sep. 21, 2015 3:14 PM GMT

The Dodgers are almost always favored on the MLB odds these days. They're favored once again, with big numbers, for the opener of a four-game series with Arizona on Monday night.

Diamondbacks-Dodgers Monday MLB Odds
As we home-worked our free MLB pick for this game the best MLB odds we could find on Los Angeles with lefty Brett Anderson was the -178 at Pinnacle, while Arizona and Jhoulys Chacin were getting +174 at 5Dimes. 5Dimes was also listing the Dodgers at -300 to win this series, with the Diamondbacks getting +250.

 

The Situation
Los Angeles just dropped two of three games at home to Pittsburgh over the weekend, losing Sunday's rubber match 4-3. The defeat snapped a seven-series winning streak for the Dodgers, during which they won 17 of 22 games.

At 85-63 Los Angeles leads the NL West by 7.5 games over second-place San Francisco, with just 14 games to go. But the Dodgers now only lead the Mets by a game and a half in the battle for the No. 2 seed in the upcoming National League playoffs.

Arizona, meanwhile, just took two of three games at San Francisco, missing out on the sweep by losing Sunday 5-1. So the Diamondbacks have been treading water lately, going 2-2 in their last four series, 6-6 over their last 12 games.

At 71-78 Arizona, which made a run at .500 a few weeks ago, is just trying to play spoiler from here on out.

The Dodgers lead this season series 11 games to four, with the totals splitting 7-7-1.

 

Monday's Mound Match-Up
Anderson (9-8, 3.35), by our tough accounting, is 13-for-28 on quality starts this season, two for his last four. Last Tuesday he held Colorado to three runs – two earned – through six innings, with zero walks and seven strikeouts. And over his last four starts he's allowed just six ER through 23 1/3 innings. On the season Anderson has allowed 170 hits through 164 innings, walked 44 and struck out 111.

Los Angeles is 15-13 in Anderson's starts, with the UNDERS going 14-13.

Anderson has already started four times this season against Arizona, giving up eight runs through 24 innings; the Dodgers won three of those four games, and three of those games played UNDER.

Chacin (0-1, 2.95) will be making his fourth start since getting called up from the Minors earlier this month. So far he's two-for-three on quality starts, and hasn't yet allowed more than two ER in an outing. Last Tuesday he held San Diego to two runs through five innings, and over his three starts he's allowed six ER through 18 1/3 innings, with five walks and 14 strikeouts.

The Diamondbacks are 1-2 in Chacin's starts, with the totals going 1-1-1.

Last year, with Colorado, Chacin went 1-7 overall with a 5.40 ERA. In two starts against LA he gave up six runs through 12 innings; the Rockies split those two games, while both games played UNDER.

 

Monday's Batting Splits
Arizona ranks ninth in the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with a .327 team on-base percentage, and 12th with a .408 team slugging percentage.

Los Angeles, on the other hand, ranks fifth against right-handed pitching with a .325 team OBP and seventh with a .418 team slugging percentage.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Dodger Stadium this year are 40-32 on the OVERS, even though they're only averaging 7.4 runs per. As always, oddsmakers have been posting some low totals on LA home games.

 

Injury Update
The Dodgers are a little banged up at the moment, and even Adrian Gonzalez missed a game Sunday with a sore back. Bettors might be wise to check the lineup cards before getting down on tonight's game.

 

Diamondbacks-Dodgers Free MLB Picks
LA is favored, and deservedly so, but from our calculations by a few dimes too much. We believe the value on today's line resides with Arizona. Also, we can see this game getting to 5-3, so we're thinking OVER.

MLB Picks: Diamondbacks +165 & OVER 7.5 at Bovada

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