MLB Picks: Underdog Rangers Will Shoot Blue Jays Out Of The Sky

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, May 4, 2016 2:04 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 4, 2016 2:04 PM UTC

The Rangers have held their own with the Blue Jays in two low scoring games to begin this series, and Texas now seems to be a nice overlay MLB Pick in Toronto on Wednesday.


MLB Record: 14-16-1, +0.04

Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
There could be a nice underdog overlay north of the border Wednesday night when Colby Lewis and the Texas Rangers (15-12, 5-7 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Aaron Sanchez and the disappointing Toronto Blue Jays (13-15, 6-8 home) for the third game of a four-game series from Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON Canada at 7:07 ET in a game available in FOX - Southwest.

The posted money line at BetOnline has Texas as a large underdog for this contest at current MLB odds of +168.


Teams Split Two Tight Games
This series is a rematch of the ALDS last season won by the Blue Jays in the maximum five games, and the teams have split two tight low scoring games thus far, with the Rangers prevailing at an underdog price 2-1 in the opener on Monday and then Toronto rallying for a 3-1 win last night, thanks single-handedly to Justin Smoak as he tied the game with a solo home run in the ninth inning and then won it with a walk-off two-run homer in the 10th!

Despite those heroics on Tuesday, the defending American League East Champion Blue Jays remain a disappointing 13-15 as their offense, which was the best in baseball last year and figured to be among the best again this season, has been MIA as Toronto is averaging just 3.89 runs per game with a lowly team batting average of .229.

The Rangers meanwhile have still been the winning MLB picks in five of their last seven games even with last night’s disappointment, and in an American League West where no team seems to want to take control, that leaves Texas in second place at 15-12, just one-half game behind the 15-11 Seattle Mariners.

Nice Comeback Form for Lewis
The veteran 36-year-old Lewis is in his 11th season in the Major Leagues and his ninth with the Rangers, and that does not include missing four entire seasons since breaking in during the 2002 season with assorted injuries. Most recently he missed the 2013 season after undergoing some risky hip surgery, and he was not very sharp upon his return that last two years. However, Lewis is having his best season in a while so far now three years removed from that procedure.

Colby is 2-0 in five starts with a nice 3.19 ERA, and he is also 4-for-5 in Quality Starts. Perhaps most importantly Lewis has gone at least six innings in all five of his starts, which is an indication that he is over whatever lingering issues he may have been having with his hip. He comes off of an outing on Friday where he went seven innings and allowed only two runs vs. the Los Angeles Angels with one of the runs coming on a solo homer.

Now he faces a Toronto offense that is almost incomprehensibly 26th in the majors in batting average and even only 16th in team OPS at .708 after leading the world in that statistic last year at .797!


Converted Reliever Has Impressed
Sanchez is a converted reliever that shows great promise as a starter for Toronto, as he is 2-1 with a spiffy 2.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in five starts this season including four Quality Starts. Sanchez also showed some nice gumption, following up the worst start of his young career where he allowed six runs and 10 hits in 4.1 innings vs. Oakland two starts ago with probably his best, tossing seven scoreless innings while allowing six hits at Tampa Bay Friday.

Still, for all of Sanchez’s potential, is he worth laying such a probative favorite price here after such a small sampling as a Major League starter? Also remember that the one bad start in Oakland came after topping 100 pitches for the first time in his prior start vs. Boston. That bears mentioning here because he threw 103 pitches vs. the Rays at St. Petersburg.

If the youngster has a shorter outing today, it may be a bad sign considering the Toronto bullpen has slumped to a collective 4.50 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last 10 games.


Success vs. Losing Teams
Finally, while we get that the Blue Jays should turn things around eventually, the fact remains that they are currently two games below .500 and the Rangers are 15-7 in their last 22 road games vs. teams with overall losing records, as well as 13-6 in their last 19 road games vs. teams with a losing home records (Toronto is 6-8 at home). Also, Texas is 11-2 in Lewis's last 13 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

While we get that Sanchez shows promise for the Blue Jays, we still cannot justify this large price especially with the quiet Jays offense these days, so back Texas at the fairly huge underdog price visiting Toronto, Canada on Wednesday.

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Free MLB Pick: Rangers +168
Best Line Offered: at YouWager

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