MLB Picks: Two Ways To Win On Mets vs. Dodgers Tuesday Night

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, May 11, 2016 4:56 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 11, 2016 4:56 PM UTC

New York and Los Angeles are deadlocked at 1-1 as they enter the third contest of their four-game series. The attention-grabber will be the two starting pitchers. MLB pick here!

Noah Syndergaard (2-2, 2.58 ERA) will be an imposing figure on the mound for the Mets, while Kenta Maeda (3-1, 1.66) is a rookie in name only here in the U.S. at 28, having spent eight years toiling in Japanese baseball.

For MLB picks, we will breakdown the pitching matchup and also delve into the MLB odds at GTBets concerning the total, which is down to 6.5.


Pitching Matchup - Syndergaard vs. Meada
At 6'6, 240 pounds, Snydergaard has long blonde hair and looks like Viking from the past, hence his nickname "Thor". Heck, add 40 pounds to his frame with weightlifting and he is your next WWE superstar.

However, Snydergaard is rather adept at throwing a white sphere and has fast ball that regularly clocks in the high 90's and often hits triple digits. The right-hander also has excellent curve and quality change, in which he has same fastball arm motion, yet throws 15 MPH slower, which fools hitters. He has lost his last two starts and admitted to feeling "uncomfortable" on the hill.

From a build standpoint, Maeda is the complete opposite of his mound foe at 6'0 and a mere 155 pounds. The righty adds and subtracts on his low-90's fastball to either create more movement or work higher in the strike zone depending on the pitch count. Like most of his countryman, Maeda has a variety of breaking pitches and will vary the speed. If there is anything to learn from his brief six-start big league career, when he piles up a few more strikeouts, he has tended to also work more batters.


Is Low Total Accurate?
Oddsmakers have a low total of 6.5 set on this conflict and we uncovered interesting facts, but they might not be helpful for picks.

If you are wondering who those setting the odds think is the most dominate pitcher on the Mets talented staff, consider of New York's five totals that were 6.5 or less this, Snydergaard was the starting pitcher in four of them. In fact, of his 34 starts in the majors, including the postseason, 14 (41.1%) have featured closing number of 6.5 or less. While this is newsworthy, it does not help totals players one iota, since Thor and other Vikings, sorry, Mets mates are 7-7 against the number.

There is also nothing to be gained by reviewing the Dodgers for a clue, as they are 3-3 in 2016 when the total is 6.5 or less.


Recent Series History
New York lost 3-2 last evening on the Dodgers Trayce Thompson's pinch-hit home run in the ninth inning. The Mets are still 6-5 at Dodger Stadium and in spite of a pair of low-scoring games in the series, the OVER is 6-5 in same time span.


Game Outcome
My initial thought was the Dodgers to win the game, but when thinking and digging deeper, I think the low total is correct and would recommend UNDER with Los Angeles 12-3 UNDER at home. With this in mind, one mistake could make the difference in the game and Maeda has given up three home runs compared to Snydergaard's one.

Even with last night's miscue, the New York relievers have been more prone to keeping the ball in the yard than the counterparts (6 vs. 9) and the Metropolitans are 15-1 after scoring and allowing four runs or less in last three games and I'll take the -111. Visit our top MLB picks of the day to get more fantastic value bets. 

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Free MLB Pick: NY Mets -110 and Under
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker
Doug's Game Picks: 7-4, +1.6 units

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