MLB Picks: Two Ways To Profit On Exhausted White Sox In Visit To Seattle

Kevin Stott

Monday, July 18, 2016 2:34 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 18, 2016 2:34 PM UTC

The Chicago White Sox have L3 straight to start the 2nd Half of the MLB Regular Season and were outscored 16-1 in a sweep by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Let’s look at some of the numbers and Trends, make some picks and postulate if Chicago has enough in them to suddenly start scoring some Runs after traveling late Sunday from Los Angeles up to the Emerald City.

CH White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
The Chicago White Sox (45-46) and LHP Chris Sale (14-3) face the Seattle Mariners (46-46) and LHP Wade LeBlanc (1-0) in Game 1 of this 3-game AL East series at Safeco Field in Seattle on Monday night. Offshore oddsmakers have opened up the White Sox as respectable -145 Road favorites with Sale on the bump with the game’s Total (Runs) opening up at 7½ (Under -113 at Heritage). The Run Line MLB odds see Chicago -1½ runs priced at +110 with the host Mariners and LeBlanc +1½ runs at -130 (Heritage).

The scheduled Starters for Game 2 in this series on Tuesday (10:105 p.m. EDT/7:10 p.m. PDT) are RHP Jose Quintana (7-8, 3.21 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) for Chicago and LHP Wade Miley (6-6, 5.44 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) for Seattle while in Game 3 of the series Wednesday night, the White Sox are scheduled to send Miguel González (2-5, 4.28 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) to the hill against Seattle veteran RHP ace Félix Hernández (4-4, 2.86 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).


Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox (50/1 to win World Series; opened 40/1) pushed back ace Chris Sale’s start back a game so he gets to start here in Seattle in a fresh series. And that may psychologically be a good thing for White Sox Manager Robin Ventura and his AL Central team after getting swept by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in their first series after the MLB All-Star Break, pathetically getting outscored 16-1 in the process (7-0, 1-0 8-1) and getting shut out twice at Angel Stadium. On Sunday, Chicago  lost 8-1 as Angels starter Jered Weaver limited to the White Sox to just 1 Run (Earned) and 7 Hits. 

In the Loss for the White Sox (25/1 to win AL Pennant, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)—which dipped them a game below the .500 mark (45-46)—Manager (and former White Sox 3B) Ventura had a Starting Lineup of: SS Tim Anderson, RF Adam Eaton, 1B Jose Abreu, LF Melky Cabrera, 3B Todd Frazier, DH Justin Morneau, 2B Brett Lawrie, CF JB Shuck and C Omar Narvaez with Jacob Turner getting the pill for the visitors and getting rocked, allowing 8 Runs (all Earned) on 7 Hits in just 4.0 IP. So perhaps the perceived AL Central race between these White Sox (45-46, 9½ GB), the defending division and MLB champion Kansas City Royals (46-45, 8 GB), Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers (48-44, 6½) is still actually a race because this is MLB and because it still only July 18. 

The White Sox (368 RF-388 RA) have seen 3 of their L4 games go Under with Sunday’s 8 pushing the closing Total and Chicago is 41-46-3  O/U heading in here, although the Pale Hose have actually been an Over team (22-20) on the Road so far and Seattle has also played more Overs (24-18-2) at Home.


Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners (80/1 to win World Series; opened 30/1)  and new Manager Scott Servais have been slumping a bit (4-7 L11) and fell to the .500 mark (46-46) in Sunday’s 8-1 Loss to the Astros and Collin McHugh at Safeco Field in Seattle. In the setback, M’s Manager Servais had a Starting Lineup of: LF Seth Smith, CF Leonys Martin, 2B Robinson Cano, RF Nelson Cruz, 3B Kyle Seager, 1B Da-Ho Lee, DH Adam Lind, C Jesus Sucre and SS Ketel Marte with Mike Montgomery going for the hosts and allowing 4 Runs (3 Earned) on 7 Hits in 5.0 IP and getting the Loss. 

The Mariners (40/1 to win AL Pennant) are still better than they have been in some seasons but Starting Pitching, Clutch Hitting, Expectations, (getting to the) Postseason Experience and not being dominant at Home (23-22) could really hurt Seattle (440 RF-399 RA), who like the ChiSox, were playing better Baseball earlier this year. The Under is 6-4 in Seattle’s L10 after Sunday’s Over (9).


Starting Pitchers Report Card
White Sox scheduled starting LHP Chris Sale (14-3, 3.38 ERA, 123 K’s, 1.04 WHIP) has the most Wins in MLB and had this start pushed back to Game 1 here by White Sox Manager Ventura after Sale pitched in the 2016 MLB All-Star game. Lifetime against these Mariners, Sale has done pretty good in Seattle Plate Appearances, save for Nelson Cruz who is 7-for-16 with 2 HRs and 4 RBI vs. the White Sox lefty ace. But the rest of the Seattle Roster has struggled against Sale, with Robinson Cano faring the best (.278 in 18 ABs but 0 RBI and 0 HR), Chris Iannetta (.081), Franklin Gutierrez (.125 in 8 ABs), Kyle Seager (1-10, .100) and Ketel Marte, Leonys Martin, Daniel Robinson, Seth Smith, Adam Lind and Jesus Sucre all hitless against Sale in a combined 14 ABs. 

With LHP journeyman Wade LeBlanc (1-0, 3.52 ERA, 10 K’s, 0.98 WHIP) so inconsistent , he hasn’t faced Chicago as a Starter but the 31-year-old native of Lake Charles, Louisiana has pitched 4 Innings of no-hit (and 0 Runs) Relief against Chicago in his career and new White Sox Todd Frazier is hitless against him (0-3). A very intriguing Pitching matchup and expect LeBlanc to try to rise to the occasion.


Seattle Weather Forecast, Trends, Final Thoughts and Picks
The Weather Channel forecast for Seattle from The Weather Channel on Monday night is calling for Cloudy conditions with a stray Shower or even Thunderstorm possible (74% Humidity), a Low of 59° with SSW Winds 5 to 10 mph. So, it could be a rainy night in Seattle and with this being Monday and the first game of a new series after getting swept and then having to Travel on Sunday night, this one could get off to a sluggish start.

Some White Sox Trends: Chicago is 11-3 its L14 Monday games, 4-1 its L5 against a Lefty Starter and 7-16 their L23 Road games after getting swept in the Golden State on Sunday to start the post-All-Star schedule 0-3. But Chicago is 5-1 in Sale’s L6 Starts overall, 5-1 his L6 Starts in Game 1 of a series and Chicago is 5-1 in Sale’s L6 starts on Grass (Safeco Field). And some relevant and recent Mariners Trends: Seattle is 5-1 the L6 Home games, 5-1 in its L6 against a team with a Losing Road Record but 1-5 the L6 vs.a LHP Starter. The M's are also 1-4 the L5 on Monday and 2-7 the L9 vs AL Central.

Some Totals Trends for your perusal: The Over is 25-7-2 the L34 White Sox games against a Starter with a WHIP under 1.15 (LeBlanc, 0.98 WHIP)—but that’s a tough one to put weight one with LeBlanc being so new as a Starter and having so few Starts with the Mariners—and 6-2 in the L7 in this series. The Under is 6-1 the L7 Chicago games against the AL West, 6-1 in Sale’s L7 Road Starts, 4-1 the L5 White Sox Road game and 4-1 also in the L5 vs. LHP Starters. The Under is 6-2 the L8 Game 1’s of a White Sox series, 4-1 the L5 ChiSox Road games thanks to that aforementioned 1 run scored in 2 games in Lipstick City and 4-1-1 in Sale’s L4 Starts on a Monday. 

But the big Trend here seems to be that White Sox are 5-0 in their L5 Starts by Sale against the Mariners and that Chicago is an impressive 35-16 over the L51 meetings (68.6%). But having scored just 1 Run in Anaheim, Travelling and it being Monday and all makes it hard to suggest backing the now .500 (and bumming) White Sox, making the Under probably the best MLB pick here. And taking the host Mariners on the Run Line +1½ -127 (Pinnacle) also seem wise as Seattle can win this one the way the White Sox Offense has been producing so far this young 2nd Half. One Run scored is one more than you and I have scored and we don’t have Bats in our hands. In our heads maybe.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: White Sox 4 Mariners 3
Free MLB Pick: Under 7½ -110, Mariners +1½ -127
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2991800, "sportsbooksIds":[238,227,93,1096,92], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here