MLB Picks: Two Saturday Night Underdogs To Fatten Your Wallet

Saturday, April 23, 2016 3:00 PM GMT

Our MLB betting guru shares his two top money line underdogs on Saturday night’s card. Go inside to get a maximum return on investment with your MLB picks today.

Cubs (Lackey) vs. Reds (Straily)
The Cubs have outscored Cincinnati in the first two games of this series by a cumulative 16-1 margin. It started on Thursday when Jake Arrieta tossed a no hitter during a 16-0 blowout, and then last night’s 8-1 rout behind a dominating pitching performance by Jon Lester. I would be absolutely shocked if public wagering doesn’t overwhelmingly favor the Cubs for Saturday’s matchup.

The Cubs starter on Saturday will be John Lackey. The veteran right-handed hurler is coming off a strong outing against St. Louis in which he allowed no earned runs in 7.0 innings of work. Since 2013, Lackey has gone an abysmal 1-12 in his away team starts following an outing in which he allowed 1 earned run or less.

Daniel Straily will make his second start of the season on Saturday for Cincinnati. He was very good in his 2016 debut, allowing 1 earned run, 2 hits, and walked 2 during 5.0 innings pitched.

 

Betting Angle
Current MLB Odds at Sportsbet.com has Cincinnati as a +150 money line underdog. The Cubs have a terrific bullpen ERA of 1.96 this season. Cincinnati is averaging only 3.8 runs scored per game in 2016.

Any money line underdog (Reds) of +100 or greater, averaging 3.8 runs or less per game, and has allowed 8 runs or more in each of their previous two outings, versus an opponent with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or less, resulted in those underdogs going 30-12 (71.4%) since 1997.

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Free MLB Pick:  Reds +150
Best Line Offered: at YouWager

 

Phillies (Morton) vs Brewers (Anderson)
After a shaky 2016 debut, Saturday’s Phillies starter Charlie Morton has turned in back to back superb outings. During those tarts, Morton allowed just 1 earned run on 7 hits in 12.0 innings pitched. Morton made three starts versus Milwaukee a season ago, and compiled a very good 2.79 ERA during those appearances

Chase Anderson of Milwaukee has enjoyed a nice beginning to the 2016 season. However, Anderson has made 2 career starts versus Philadelphia, posted a rather lofty 5.23 ERA, and both of those took place a season ago. The Brewers southpaw hurler doesn’t figure to get much help from Brewers relief pitchers. Milwaukee’s bullpen has been brutal this season, evidenced by a staff ERA of 5.07, and they’ve allowed 14 home runs in 60 1/3 innings of work.

 

Betting Angle
The Phillies are averaging a paltry 2.8 runs scored per game thus far in 2016. Their starting pitcher today Charlie Morton will be working on 5 days rest.

Any National League road team (Phillies) that’s +125 to -125 on the money line, averaging 4.1 runs or less scored per game, and their starting pitcher is working on 5 or 6 days of rest, versus an opponent with a bullpen ERA of 5.00 or more, resulted in those road teams going 51-20 (71.8%) since 1997.

I like the betting value with the road underdog in this matchup, and one of my Saturday MLB pick will concur.

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Free MLB Pick:  Phillies +133
Best Line Offered: at Intertops