MLB Picks: Two Prospects Duel Giving Value To The Under As Marlins Host Phillies

Phillies vs Marlins

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, July 27, 2016 12:41 PM GMT

Two young pitchers with fantastic futures take the mound in Miami on Wednesday morning, and our handicapper likes them both! Read on to find out his MLB Pick.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins
While one of these teams has a chance at catching up with the leaders of th NL East, one team is already eyeing next year. Philadelphia sits 13 games back in the NL East as they travel to the Miami Marlins for a three-game series starting Monday, with the Marlins currently sitting 5 games back of the Nationals in the division. Miami has struggled offensively coming into this series, having gone 19 innings since scoring a run before Tuesday’s game. The home town Marlins are favored in Wednesday’s matinee game at -158 at BetOnline at this time. The early O/U total posted is at 8 runs across the board. This game starts at 9:10 AM PST, which is why I’m breaking it down even before Tuesday night’s game is played.

Starting for the Marlins in this matchup is 2nd-year starter, Adam Conley. Looking at his starts over the year, I have noticed that Conley does not pitch very deep into games very often so the Miami bullpen should come into play here. Paul Sporer over at Fangraphs.com identified the issue with Conley even more succinctly, that he tires at about 75 pitches and his slider goes to garbage. The difference is nearly unbelievable in the first two times as compared to the third time through the lineup. What we need to take away here is that Conley is very strong in the first 5 innings of a game, and that the Marlins bullpen will see action.

On the year though things are still positive for Adam Conley, as he has posted a 3.58 ERA, 106/44 K/BB rate, 1.28 WHIP, and .232 batting average allowed. His HR/FB% rate is pretty low to at just 7.8%. Even with the limited innings per appearance, Conley has almost doubled his MLB innings pitched in a season, though, so fatigue down the stretch needs to be monitored.

Starting for the Phillies is a rookie and top prospect, Zach Eflin. After a rough go of it in his MLB debut against Toronto, Eflin has been nails for the Phillies while notching 2 complete games and a complete game shutout in his last game started in Pittsburgh. Even with the 8 earned runs, he gave up in 2.2 innings in his first MLB start, Eflin has posted a 3.40 ERA, 26/8 K/BB rate, 1.05 WHIP, and .232 batting average allowed. Eflin has been just as hard on lefties as righties, allowing a .233 and .231 batting average to each group, respectively. He has never faced the Marlins in his career.

As Miami has struggled offensively in recent games, the Phillies have struggled as well since the All-Star break. Philadelphia has not topped more than 4 runs in any of the 11 games since the break, going 4-7 SU in the process. This is consistent with their season average too, which sits at just 3.6 runs per game. The Phillies are even worse against their division at scoring just 3.1 runs per game.

Earlier I mentioned that the Miami bullpen would likely see considerable innings here, with Conley averaging only 5 to 6 innings per start at best. The Marlin bullpen is a strength here, though, with a 3.59 ERA over 158 innings pitched at home this year.

I like both Eflin in this spot and the combination of Conley with the Miami bullpen, which leads me to a play on both pitchers and the Under. Currently sitting at 8, I see this possibly moving to 7.5 runs before first pitch. Take Under 8 runs at -110 as one of your Wednesday MLB Picks.

 

Free MLB Picks: Under 7.5 +100
Best Line Offered: at Heritage
2016 YTD MLB: 37-22-3, +13.91 Units

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