MLB Picks: Twins Desperate To Turn Fortunes Around Against Yankees

Jay Pryce

Sunday, June 26, 2016 11:00 AM GMT

Sunday, Jun. 26, 2016 11:00 AM GMT

Lots of runs are expected when Tyler Duffey and the Twins face off against Nathan Eovaldi and the Yankees Sunday afternoon in the Bronx. Free pick with analysis here.

Minnesota Twins (23-51) – Tyler Duffey (2-6, 6.18 ERA)
The Twins’ 2-1 loss last night made it 10 times or more they have dropped at least three games on the year. Their 23-51 record is the lowest in MLB. Perhaps more ominous entering the three-game series finale at Yankee Stadium this afternoon is their dismal record against New York of late. The Bronx Bombers are 55-19 in the last 74 matchups, sinking the Twins to an even worse winning percentage (.257) than their league-low mark (.331) through the same number of games.

Tyler Duffey is tasked with reversing the Twins’ fortunes, and it appears he will have his work cut out for him. Winning eight of the young right-handers first 10 outings upon entering the bigs late last season, Minnesota have dropped eight of his 11 starts this season.

According to reports, Duffy is in danger of losing his spot in the rotation. In his last seven trips to the mound, he and the bullpen yield a whopping 8.0 runs on 12.7 hits per game. Duffey’s ERA exploded over this stretch, from 3.30 to 6.18 currently.

The curve-ball specialist has never faced the Yankees, but is 1-3 with a 4.33 ERA and steep 1.56 WHIP in five road outings this year. Duffey shouldn’t expect much help either. The Twins’ relief ranks near the bottom in the league in most key categories, including an abysmal .800 OPS allowed. Only the Cincinnati Reds’ .870 is higher.

Offensively, Minnesota’s lineup is full of free-swinging sluggers, unable to get on base consistently. The team’s 22.9 strikeout and .309 on-base percentages rank 24th and 22nd in MLB respectively. Manager Paul Molitor’s men cross the plate a below-average 3.99 times per contest.


 

New York Yankees (37-36) – Nathan Eovaldi (6-4, 5.02 ERA)
Have the wheels fallen off for Nathan Eovaldi? This is what Yankees; fans are asking themselves following the flamethrower’s last four outings. In this stretch, he is 0-2 and has gifted 20 earned runs on 32 hits in 20 innings. Prior to the poor run, he won five decisions in a row and sported a 3.71 ERA.

In his career, the Yankees generally take care of business when expected to in the betting market behind Eovaldi. As chalk, they are 19-5 SU in his starts, including winning six of the last seven. He and the relief allow just 3.5 runs per contest, supported by 6.5 from a beefy Bronx lineup. The -220 opening MLB Odds for today’s contest is the steepest in Eovaldi’s lifetime.

The hard-tossing righty is 2-1 with a 3.98 ERA in three outings against the Twins. Eovaldi is holding the current roster to a .222 batting average (12-for-54), but has fanned just eight batters—a low ratio for his standards.

The Yankees bats are waking up. In June, it's produced 5.0 runs on 9.8 hits per game. Prior to this, they scored a paltry 3.8 runs on 7.6 knocks. For the year, the roster ranks in the bottom third in MLB in most hitting categories, including a .703 OPS (24th).

 

Final Analysis
Duffey has not put in a quality start in his last seven outings; Eovaldi his last four. One of these two should turn in a better performance today. Both teams have failed to fire early when facing off this season, scoring three or fewer in four of six meetings. Books opened the over-under through the first five innings at 5 (-125) and we’ll pounce on the Under, espically if it raises a half run. Under for the first half is the free MLB Pick.

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Free MLB Pick:  F5 Under 5 -125
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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