MLB Picks: Twins & Brewers To Slide 'Under' The Total In Milwaukee

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, April 20, 2016 5:39 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 20, 2016 5:39 PM UTC

Despite being involved in a couple of 'overs' at the beginning of their home-and-home series, the Twins and Brewers are ready to give us a reliable 'under' MLB pick.

MLB Record: 8-8-1, +1.08

Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
After being involved in a couple of relatively high scoring affairs the last two days in Minnesota, there could be less scoring given this pitching matchup Wednesday night when southpaw Tommy Milone and the Minnesota Twins (4-10, 0-6 away) this time pay a visit to right-hander Jimmy Nelson and the Milwaukee Brewers (6-8, 3-3 home) as the venue switches to Miller Park in Milwaukee, WI at 8:10 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - North. The posted total at Heritage Sports is 8½ for this contest with the current MLB odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.


Streaky Twins
The Twins have been one of the streakiest teams in the Major Leagues, as they began this season at a dismal 0-9 before winning four straight games, a winning streak that ended with a rain-shortened 7-4 win in the opening game of this home-and-home series in Minnesota on Monday. The Brewers then took the second game in Minneapolis in a 6-5 slugfest yesterday as the scenery now shifts to Milwaukee today and tomorrow.

The Brewers ended an eight-game road trip at only 3-5 after being the winning MLB pick on Tuesday, but at least the trip ended on a positive note and they now get to return home to Miller Park where they have won three of their last four games following an 0-2 start. Also, the Twins are still seeking their first road win of the year in the opposing dugout, as they sit at 0-6 away from home.


Nice Power Sinker for Nelson
We were high on Nelson coming into this season, and he has yet to pitch a bad game while allowing exactly two earned runs in all three starts resulting in a 2.79 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 19.1 innings. Our one concern for Nelson so far though has been his command as he has issued nine walks already including eight in his last two starts. Still, Nelson can be dominant when he could harness his control, as he was oftentimes last season.

You see, Nelson throws a power sinker that averaged 93.5 MPH while topping out at 97.2 MPH last year. That gives Nelson a desirable combination of both a good strikeout rate and a good groundball rate, and opposing batters have continued to struggle getting any lift on his very hard sinker this year given his 54.5 percent ground ball rate through three starts.

This is also the first time that the Twins have ever faced Nelson, which is usually to the pitcher’s advantage, and Minnesota is batting just .220 and averaging a mere 1.96 runs in its six road games thus far. Therefore, Nelson has a chance at a stellar performance as long as he could throw strikes.


Brewers Struggling vs. Southpaws
The left-hander Milone is not off to a good start for Minnesota this year at 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA through two outings, but he is capable of better and is facing a lineup that he has proven he can handle. Milone finished a respectable 9-5 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.5 WAR over 129.2 innings in his first full year with the Twins last year after being acquired from the Oakland Athletics in the middle of the season two years ago.

Milone has also shined in his two career starts vs. the Brewers including a brilliant outing last season where he allowed only two hits while tossing six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts right here in Milwaukee. That came on the heels of allowing two runs on five hits in seven innings without issuing any walks in his first ever start vs. the Brew Crew.

Best of all for Milone, he now gets to face a Brewers’ lineup that has been terrible vs. southpaws through the early going, batting only .173 while averaging 2.66 runs per nine innings against them.


Trending the ‘under’
Finally, the ‘under’ is 7-3-1 in Milone’s last 11 starts on grass as well as 14-4-3 in the Twins’ last 21 road games vs. right-handed starters. Additionally, the ‘under’ is 5-1 in Nelson’s last six home starts vs. teams with losing records as well as 6-0-1 in the Brewers’ last seven interleague games vs. left-handed starters.

Given the vast potential that Nelson possesses combined with the Brewers’ struggles vs. left-handers, look for those ‘under’ patterns to continue when Minnesota visits Milwaukee as the venue for this four-game home-and-home series switches on Wednesday.

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Free MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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