MLB Picks: Turn Your Attention To The Run Line In Phillies vs. Nationals Game 2

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, April 27, 2016 5:58 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 27, 2016 5:58 PM UTC

Yesterday we noted that Pirates had a myriad of indicators working for them with the Rockies last night. The Bucs bolted to a 1st inning lead and never looked back. MLB pick inside.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
The Phillies are one of those surprise teams in the National League this year with a record of 10-10, including 5-5 on the road. Last night, the Phillies won the opening game of this set (4-3), behind Blanco’s 2-run homer, followed by Blanco scoring the go-ahead run on Franco’s double in the 7th inning.  That win, however, snapped an 8-game home winning streak by the Nationals and sets up the following situation.  Washington is 3-1 off a loss this season with all victories coming by 2 or more runs. More on that when we discuss the run line later in this analysis!  For now, we must turn our attention to the dichotomous pitching matchup in this contest.

Hellickson enters with a 5.21 ERA for the season.  That includes a 9-1 loss to these Nationals in a game on April 15th, when Hellickson lasted just 3 IP, allowing 6 runs and 7 hits.  Hellickson today takes the mound, knowing that in 3 starts vs. Washington, he is now 0-2 with a whopping 8.78 ERA.  Life did not get any better for Hellickson in his interim start against the Mets (a 5-4 Philly loss).  In that contest, Hellickson lasted just 4 1/3 IP, allowing 4 runs on 10 hits.  I will be very surprised if Hellickson, who is in poor current form, does not succumb to the bats of Washington again this evening.

His mound opponent is a re-born Gio Gonzalez.  After a pair of mediocre seasons, Gonzalez has returned to his 2012 form, which saw him win 21 games for these Nationals.  In 3 starts this season, Gonzalez has a 1.42 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, a .186 BAA and a .230 OBP.  Including his dominance of Philadelphia in an earlier meeting this season, he has now posted a 2.13 ERA in his most recent 4 outings vs. the Phillies.  I can see little reason why he will not be successful again tonight.


Betting Analysis
With all positive factors indicating a Washington victory, we turn our attention to the run line aspect of the handicap. Eight of the Phillies’ 10 losses have been by 2 or more runs, while 11 of 14 Washington victories have been by 2 or more runs.  In a game I figure Washington to win handily, these numbers present a huge edge at this price.  I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Washington Nationals tonight.    

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Free MLB Pick: Washington Nationals -1.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage 

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