MLB Picks: Trusth The Dodgers +156 at Plus Money to Get You Paid

Darin Zank

Monday, October 12, 2015 5:29 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 12, 2015 5:29 PM UTC

The Mets are in same situation as the Cubs; they split the first two games of an NLDS on the road, and now throw their ace at home for Game 3 Monday, against the Dodgers.

Dodgers-Mets NLDS Game 3 Odds
As of mid-Monday morning the best MLB odds we could find on New York with Matt Harvey was the -157 offered at 5Dimes, while Los Angeles with lefty Brett Anderson was getting +153 at Heritage.

Bigger-picture, the Dodgers began this series as -190 favorites to win it, with the Mets getting +165; as of Monday morning 5Dimes was listing LA at -115 to win this NLDS, with New York “getting” -105.


The Situation
These teams split the first two games of this NLDS out in Los Angeles, New York taking the opener last Friday 3-1, the Dodgers taking Game 2 Saturday 5-2. So the Mets now get Games 3 and 4 at home, with their ace going Monday night, with a chance to take the series lead.

On the season New York has taken five of nine games from LA, with the OVERS going 5-4.


Game 3 Pitching Match-Up
Harvey (13-8, 2.71), by our strict standards, is 19-for-29 on quality starts this season, and an inning away from being three for his last three. Nine days ago he limited Washington to one unearned run through six innings, with 11 strikeouts against zero walks, and over his last three starts he's allowed just two earned runs through 17 2/3 innings.

On the season New York is 17-12 in Harvey's starts, with the OVERS going 17-12.

In two starts this season against Los Angeles Harvey gave up five runs and 13 hits, including three homers, through 12 innings; the Mets split those two games.

Anderson (10-9, 3.69) is 14-for-31 on quality starts this year. He produced a couple of poor outings back-to-back a couple weeks ago, giving up 11 runs in less than nine innings against Arizona and Colorado, but in his season finale 11 days ago he held San Francisco to two runs through 7 2/3 innings.

For the season LA is 16-15 in Anderson's starts, with the totals splitting 15-15.

This will be Anderson's first-ever start against New York, which could give him an edge on Mets hitters, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.


Game 3 Batting Splits
Los Angeles ranked 10th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .322 team on-base percentage, and 11th with a .411 team slugging percentage.

New York, on the other hand, ranked 21st against left-handed pitching with a .312 team OBP and 13th with a .411 team slugging percentage.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Citi Field this season leaned 41-38 toward the UNDERS, as they averaged 7.4 runs per, second-fewest among all ML ballparks.


Personnel Update
As you might have heard Los Angeles IF Chase Utley broke New York SS Ruben Tejada's leg in a take-out at second base Saturday night; Tejada is gone for the season, but while Utley got suspended, and deservedly so, he appealed, and it looks like he might be in the lineup tonight.


NLDS Game 3 Free Picks
It would be easy to go with the Mets tonight, give the price and expect a power performance from Harvey, but LA had a bit of success against the NY ace this year, and he is making his post-season debut, which for a rookie on the big stage of NYC can be a mindful. So for our free MLB pick on Game 3 we'll go contrarian and take the Dodgers at the underdog price.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers +156 at 5Dimes

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