MLB Picks: Trust Santana's Solid Era & Back Twins As Home Favs Over White Sox

Charles Stark

Thursday, April 14, 2016 12:52 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 14, 2016 12:52 PM UTC

Today, Mat Latos and the Chicago White Sox take on Ervin Santana and the Minnesota Twins, who have been set as a small favorite by the MLB odds makers.

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins with an MLB Record of 2-3
Odds makers have come out making Minnesota a -113 favorite at books like Pinnacle Sports. This is not a real big line so for one of my MLB picks but I will back the Twins in this spot to get their first win. Starter Ervin Santana has looked sharp so far during the season and I expect him to pitch well at home.


Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are 6-2 on the season and have starter Mat Latos who comes in with a career 3.49 ERA and 1.18 whip.  Latos was dominant in his first start of the year at Oakland, allowing just one hit in six innings. What was really impressive about that outing is that he only struck out two guys but had 10 fly balls and eight ground ball outs. With his first outing under his belt, and with the White Sox's record, I'm surprised they are not the small favorite today.

It starts to make a little more sense when we look at the White Sox's offense. On the season they are averaging just four runs per game, which ranks them 16th in the major leagues. Also, they are only hitting .235 as a team, ranking 19th. They have not struck out a lot, averaging under seven per game and rank fifth in that category in the league. Despite that though up and down, the offensive stats sheet has not a lot to shout about as they rank mostly at best in the middle of the league in the most important offensive categories. Although they have a good record, I think those statistics will start to come back at them and start to even things out in the win-loss column.


Minnesota Twins
Minnesota is 0-8 on the year and starter Ervin Santana, who comes in with a career 4.15 ERA and 1.28 whip. Santana has been brilliant so far this season, allowing just two earned runs in eight innings pitched versus Baltimore and Kansas City, both road games. He mixed things up really well against the Royals, garnering seven strikeouts, nine ground ball outs and eight fly outs. He has battled through some injuries but in his home, during the last three years, he has a solid 3.67 ERA and 16-10 win loss record.

Minnesota is desperate for win and looking at their schedule they have had some tough breaks. They opened the season facing a red-hot Orioles team and then followed that by taking on the World Series champ Royals, definitely not an easy start for any team. Even with their two losses to the White Sox recently, except for one game this year, they have been in every contest, losing by one run three times and two runs twice. Yesterday they were shut out so I expect them to bounce back in a big way today.

On the season, they simply have been striking out way too much, ranking last in the major leagues in this category. Also, they have gotten nothing going at the plate averaging just under two runs per game again ranking last. However, this is a team with some decent veterans and an extremely good rookie in Miguel Sano. I believe the MLB odds makers are on top of this one as Minnesota is overdue for a bit of a break out.

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Free MLB Pick: Minnesota -113
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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