MLB Picks: Trust Dodgers Streak & Bet Steep Odds Against Padres

Darin Zank

Thursday, September 3, 2015 2:11 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 3, 2015 2:11 PM GMT

The Dodgers without Kershaw or Greinke are an iffy proposition, but they're also hot & favored for the opener of a 4-game series vs. the Padres at Petco Park Thursday night.

Dodgers-Padres Thursday Odds
As of this writing the best price we could find on LA with newcomer Mat Latos was the -141 at BetOnline, while San Diego and rookie righty Colin Rea were getting +138 at GT Bets. And the total on tonight's game sat at seven runs, with most of the grease leaning toward the OVER.

 

The Situation
Los Angeles just swept three games from rival San Francisco, winning with Clay Kershaw Wednesday 2-1. So the Dodgers have won three series in a row and eight of their last nine games.

At 75-57 Los Angeles leads the NL West by 6.5 games over the second-place Giants.

San Diego, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at home to Texas, losing Wednesday 4-3 in 10 innings. So the Padres have lost three series in a row, and seven of their last 10 games.

At 64-69 San Diego would just like to make one more run at .500 before this season ends.

The Dodgers lead this season series eight games to four, with the totals splitting 6-6.

 

Thursday's Pitching Match-Up
Rea (2-2, 5.95) is 0-for-four on quality starts since joining the Big Club three weeks ago. Last Saturday he gave up four runs in five innings against Philadelphia, and just before that he gave up four runs in four innings against St. Louis. So over four ML starts the 25-year-old has allowed 23 hits through 19 2/3 innings, walked six and struck out 16.

San Diego is 2-2 in Rea's starts, with the OVERS going 3-1.

This will be Rea's first-ever start against Los Angeles.

Latos (4-9, 4.76) is eight-for-20 on quality starts this season, just one-for-four since joining the Dodgers in that trade with Miami a month ago. Last Saturday he gave up two runs on four hits and three walks in less than five innings against the Cubs, and over his last three starts he's been touched for 12 ER through 13 1/3 innings. On the season the former Padre has allowed 85 hits through 88 innings, walked 25 and struck out 79.

LA is 2-2 in Latos' starts, with the OVERS going 3-1.

Over four career starts against the Padres, including a decent outing six weeks ago with the Marlins, Latos has allowed just six runs through 26 innings; all four of those games played UNDER.

 

Thursday's Batting Splits
Los Angeles ranks 10th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .321 team on-base percentage, and eighth with a .418 team slugging percentage.

San Diego, meanwhile, ranks 29th against righties with a .298 team OBP and 25th with a .391 team SP.

We'll give the check mark with the sticks to LA.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Petco Park this season are 38-23 on the OVERS, averaging 8.4 runs per. Apparently the MLB odds market have been under-estimating their totals on Padres home games.

 

Injury Update
LA is playing without OF Yasiel Puig and IF Howie Kendrick, who are both on the DL with bad hamstrings. San Diego is also a little banged up, with both C Derek Norris (13 HR) and 1B Yonder Alonso (.361 OBP) questionable for tonight.

 

Dodgers-Padres Free Picks
Latos doesn't exactly inspire a ton of betting confidence, but LA is the hotter team, at a decent price.  With our MLB pick tonight we'll take the Dodgers. Also, with a little held from these bullpens, both of which own ERAs of around four, this game should play OVER.

 

MLB Picks: Dodgers (-141) and 'OVER' at BetOnline

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