MLB Picks: Tribe's Home Numbers Supports ML Play On Indians In Game 1

Indians To Start Trevor Bauer In Game 1 Of ALDS

Charles Stark

Thursday, October 6, 2016 4:02 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 6, 2016 4:02 PM UTC

Now that a couple of wildcard matchups are over, we can turn to the guts of the playoff with teams meeting for the best of five series. In the American League, Boston will travel to Cleveland for game one, and the Red Sox have been made hefty road odds favorite. Cleveland has suffered some injuries to their roster but is there any betting value in backing them tonight?


Boston Red Sox

Rick Porcello gets the start for Boston and is having a breakout year with a 3.15 ERA and 1.01 whip and allowed two earned runs in five innings versus the Tribe this season. That one appearance was at home way back in May so I don't think we can put a lot of stock into that outing, especially considering the Indians are a different monster offensively at home. Porcello has been the surprisingly steady hand for the Red Sox starters and he has very good numbers both at home and on the road. I can see why oddsmakers have made him a solid road favorite with his 3.31 ERA and batters hitting just .219 against him when the Sox travel.  Offensively Boston is the best hitting team in baseball and rank first in pretty much every major category and they should come in with some confidence against a pitcher in which they have had some nice success this season.


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Cleveland Indians

Trevor Bauer gets the start for Cleveland and comes in with a 4.26 ERA and 1.31 whip on the season but it 9.00 ERA in two appearances versus Boston this season. That high ERA against Boston was split between a one-inning relief appearance allowing two earned runs and a start where he allowed four earned runs in five innings. It has been a while though since he is faced the Red Sox as that last appearance was back in May.  His numbers don't change a lot between home and away as batters are hitting .248 against him in Cleveland and on the road. The Indians have had some tough injuries in their pitching rotation but Terry Francona seems confident in Bauer's ability to come in and give Cleveland a good chance to win this game. What I like about backing him in this spot is that he has been solid at times this season and with a playoff-like atmosphere I think he will rise the occasion. At the plate, Cleveland at home is one of the best in the league ranking third in runs per game, batting average, and OPS playing in Progressive field which again I believe puts great value on them.


Final Analysis

Oddsmakers have come out with some pretty good value on backing Cleveland in this spot at +132 like at 5 dimes, so for my MLB pick I will take Cleveland getting the plus money. With such great home numbers, I think it gives them a legitimate shot to win this game.


Free MLB Pick: Cleveland +132
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
MLB record: 49-44-3


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