MLB Picks: Total Set too low for Dodgers vs. Mets NLDS Game 3

Charles Stark

Monday, October 12, 2015 12:24 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 12, 2015 12:24 PM GMT

With tensions running high in the Mets & Dodgers series we now come to a crucial matchup in game three.  After scoring 4 total runs the 1st game & then 7 the next I'm going to back over the total.

MLB odds
MLB odds makers came out with a total of 6.5 in this game three. Across the board there is a little bit higher juice on the over but you can still get pretty good odds like at Bookmaker at -110. For one of your MLB picks I recommend taking the over as we should see both teams produce some quality at-bats.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers
Brett Anderson takes the mound with a 3.69 ERA, 1.33 whip, 116 strikeouts, and a 10-9 record. He has not faced the Mets this season but on the road his numbers are solid with a 3.07 ERA and batters hitting .266 against him with a 7-4 record. Still, he is not the type of pitcher that is going to come in and shut down the Mets at home. With a fired up crowd behind them I expect every batter to focus in and look for New York to put up more than just a few runs. Anderson can give up runs in bunches and in his last five starts he has given up 16 earned in 28 innings off of 35 hits.

To this point in the season the Dodgers rank 19th in runs scored per game at 4.10, eighth in OPS at .737, and 22nd in batting average hitting .250 as a team. Their numbers do drop on the road but they have had a bit of success against Mets starter Matt Harvey. Not a lot but enough to get some confidence that they can score a few runs to help get over the total, on the season against him they produced five earned runs off 13 hits in 12 innings. Although I expect Harvey to pitch well don't expect him to shut out the Dodgers.

 

New York Mets
Matt Harvey gets the start for the Mets and comes in with a 2.71 ERA, 1.02 whip, 188 strikeouts, and a 13-8 record. At home he has been outstanding with a 2.23 ERA, batters hitting just .216 against him, and an 8-3 record. As mentioned above he has pitched against the Dodgers twice this year and has pitched well but they were able to produce a few runs against him. When he is on he is extremely tough but he is not been immune to having a bad outing and he can give up hits in bunches. Expect him to have a good day on the mound but for the Dodgers to get just enough to help get over this total.

The Mets rank 17th in runs scored per game at 4.20, 20th in OPS at .710, and 28th in batting average hitting .244 as a team. In total against the Dodgers so far this series they've only managed 10 hits and five runs in two games. But that was facing two of the best pitchers in baseball and I think they should have a lot of good at-bats today against Anderson. Surprisingly the Mets went from one of the best home to hitting teams to one of the worst in the second half of the season. This is the playoffs though and I look for them to swing the bats well today.

 

Betting Analysis:
For one of my MLB picks today I'm going to take the over in this matchup. I think the odds makers have set this line just a little bit too low and I expect both these teams to have some good at-bats today in New York. Although the runs might come in the later innings expect both the Mets and the Dodgers to produce more than a few runs today.

MLB Pick: Dodgers & Mets OVER 6.5 (-110) at Bookmaker

comment here