MLB Picks: Total Set Too High For Cardinals vs Royals Pitching

Charles Stark

Tuesday, June 28, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 28, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

When St. Louis takes on the Royals in KC, both pitchers are good enough to keep the runs to a minimum. MLB Odds have a pretty high total for this contest, but is it too high?

The MLB Odds have opened the total at 8.5 like at Pinnacle Sports +104. This makes some sense considering it is an American League park but I like for both of these pitchers to have nice starts today. For my MLB Picks I will back under the total when these rivalries meet.

St. Louis Cardinals
Michael Wacha takes the mound for the Cardinals and comes in with a 4.41 ERA and 1.36 whip with Cardinals hitting .263 as a team which ranks them 10th in the major leagues. Wacha has not had a good start to the year but is really starting to come around allowing five earned runs in 20 innings off of just 12 total hits in three games.

This makes sense considering the last three season he holds a 3.21 ERA with batters hitting just .232 against him. In that same time span he has faced the Royals three times and he has been solid allowing just 14 hits in 20 innings of work with a 1.80 ERA.

At the plate St. Louis has been one of the better teams in all of baseball this season and rank in the top five in runs per game and OPS. I am anticipating for Wacha to have a quality start today but if he gets in trouble the relief staff for the Cardinals is decent with a 3.77 ERA with batters hitting just .222 against them which ranks third in the National League.


Kansas City Royals
Yordano Ventura gets the start for KC and comes in with a 4.54 ERA and 1.42 whip with Kansas City hitting .277 as a team which ranks second in the American League. Ventura is a bit similar to Wacha in that he is better than his current number would indicate and has pitched well recently. In his last two starts he has allowed just one earned run in 13 innings versus the White Sox and Tigers.

Looking closer, in the past three season he holds a 3.61 ERA with a solid 3.44 ERA at home where he consistently pitches better. If the Cards do get to him some the Royals come in with arguably the best relief staff in all of baseball with a 2.78 ERA, leading the American League.

Like the Cards, KC is a pretty good hitting team but outside of their team batting average most of their stats are middle tiered along with some pedestrian power numbers. Currently the Royals rank 26th in the major leagues in home runs per game and 23rd in runs per game while ranking in the middle of the league in OPS and total bases.

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Free MLB Pick:  Royals Under 8½
Best Line Offered:  at Pinnacle

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