MLB Picks: Toronto has Significant Pitching Advantage in Game 3

Darin Zank

Sunday, October 11, 2015 2:03 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 11, 2015 2:03 PM UTC

The Rangers shoot for the kill, and a nice payday as the series underdogs on the MLB futures betting odds, when they host the Blue Jays for Game 3 of this ALDS Sunday evening in Arlington.

Blue Jays-Rangers ALDS Game 3 Odds
As of early Sunday morning the best MLB odds we could find on Toronto with Marco Estrada was the -140 offered at 5Dimes, while Texas with lefty Martin Perez was getting +135 at Heritage. The Blue Jays could also be played at upwards of +120 on the run line at some outlets.


The Situation
Texas took the first two games of this ALDS up in Toronto, including a 6-4 decision in 14 innings Friday. So the Rangers cashed in getting +210 against David Price in Game 1, and while getting +155 in Game 2.

Before this ALDS started Texas was listed as an underdog of around +195 to advance to the ALCS; 5Dimes is now chalking the Rangers at -450 to win this series, with Toronto now the desperate dog getting +360.

These teams have now split eight meetings this season, with the OVERS going 4-3-1.


Game 3 Pitching Match-Up
Perez (3-6, 4.46), by our strict standards, is just six-for-14 on quality starts this season, but two for his last two. Nine days ago he held the Angels to one run through seven innings, and just before that he held Houston to two unearned runs through six frames.

For the season Texas is 7-7 in games Perez has started, with the UNDERS going 9-5.

This will be Perez's first-ever start against Toronto.

Estrada (13-8, 3.13) is 16-for-28 on quality starts, with four in a row to end the regular season. Eight days ago he held Tampa to two runs through 6 2/3 innings, with nine strikeouts, and over his last four starts he's held opponents to seven runs through 28 2/3 innings.

On the season the Blue Jays are 16-12 in Estrada's starts, with the UNDERS going 15-12.

In his one start this season against Texas Estrada gave up just one run through six innings, although Toronto lost that game 4-1 back about six weeks ago.


Game 3 Batting Splits
Toronto led the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with both a .354 team on-base percentage and a .463 team slugging percentage.

Texas, on the other hand, ranked third against right-handed pitching with a .328 team OBP and eighth with a .414 team slugging percentage.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Globe Life Park this season split the totals 37-37, even while they averaged 9.8 runs per, third-most among all ML ballparks.


Injury Update
Texas 3B Adrian Beltre left Game 1 of this series after tweaking his back, missed Game 2 and is questionable for Game 3.


ALDS Game 3 Free Picks
We give Toronto edges in the pitching match-up, with the sticks (especially if Beltre can't go) and in the comparison of the bullpens. So for our free MLB picks on Game 3 we gotta go with the Blue Jays. Also, with a little help from these two pens we can see this game playing OVER.

MLB Picks: Toronto (-141) & OVER 9.5 runs (-105) at GTBets

comment here