MLB Picks: Top Value Plays Destined To Go Over & Under For Monday's Baseball Action

Yankees

Monday, July 25, 2016 3:47 PM GMT

At some point today, we should see a big trade between the Cubs and Yankees that will send closer Aroldis Chapman to Chicago. The World Series-favored Cubs only get stronger. Here are my top three totals picks MLB odds for Monday.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins (Total of 8.5 On MLB Odds)
This could very well be the final start in a Phillies uniform for right-hander Jeremy Hellickson. In fact, don't rule out him being scratched from this game because the reported leader in the clubhouse to acquire Hellickson is the Marlins. They really need pitching help now that Wei-Yin Chen is on the disabled list and his season could be over. Chen was supposed to start this game for the Marlins. It has happened occasionally when a player was traded to the opposing team during a game and had to switch dugouts, but I can't remember a starting pitcher having to do that. Hellickson (7-7, 3.84)  comes off one of his better starts of the year, beating Miami last Wednesday and allowing one run and five hits over eight innings. He is 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three starts against the Marlins in 2016. 

Giancarlo Stanton struggles against him, going 1-for-13 with five strikeouts. Marcell Ozuna is 4-for-12 with two doubles and a homer off him. Jarred Cosart (0-1, 7.98) was called up from Triple-A New Orleans to take Chen's place in the starting rotation and gets the call for Miami. Cosart hasn't pitched in the majors since allowing six runs and eight hits over 4.1 innings in San Francisco on April 22. He hasn't faced the Phillies this year.

 

Free MLB Pick: 'Over.' It is 4-0 in Cosart's past four starts. It's 11-3 in the Phillies' past 14 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

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New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros (7.5 In MLB Betting)
These two clubs met in last year's wild-card game in New York, won by Houston. The Astros bring a four-game winning streak into this one and are gaining ground on first-place Texas in the AL West. Houston has been the best team in baseball the past two months, going 37-16 to reach a season-high 10 games over .500. And Houston is calling up one of the top prospects in baseball for this game, Alex Bregman, the No. 2 overall pick  in the 2015 draft. He was raking in the minor leagues this season. Bregman was a shortstop in college but the Astros have that position covered with Carlos Correa, so Bregman likely will play either third base or left field with the big club. He will be the first position player from his draft class to debut in the majors. Bregman will face Yankees starter Michael Pineda (4-9, 5.25). He comes off a win over Baltimore on Wednesday, shutting out the Orioles on five hits over six innings. His previous two starts Pineda had struggled. 

Pineda's first start of 2016 was against Houston and he allowed six runs and eight hits over five innings on April 6 but got the win. AL batting leader Jose Altuve is 2-for-8 career off him. Correa is 5-for-6 with two doubles and two homers. Presumably, if Chapman is traded, Andrew Miller would be the Yankees' closer if the opportunity arises.  Houston starts lefty Dallas Keuchel, last year's Cy Young winner who beat the Yankees in that wild-card game. In four career starts against the Yankees, Keuchel (6-9, 4.70) owns a 1.45 ERA. Carlos Beltran is 5-for-12 off his career with  a homer. Alex Rodriguez is 1-for-9 with four strikeouts.

 

Free MLB Pick: 'Under.' The 'under' is 6-0-1 in Pineda's past seven vs. teams with a winning record. It is 7-3 in Keuchel's past 10.+

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Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox (8.5 For MLB Picks)
Bragging rights in the Windy City are on the line this week -- because this interleague game is at the White Sox's park, the Cubs will get to add the designated hitter. That's going to greatly disappoint Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta (12-4, 2.60) as he's one of the best hitting pitchers in the majors. The Cubs have lost his past three outings but he was very strong last time out, allowing one run and five hits over seven innings against the Mets. The 11 days off in between starts appeared to work wonders on Arrieta, who had been struggling for a while prior to that. Arrieta is 3-1 with a 3.82 ERA in six career starts against the White Sox. 

Todd Frazier is 3-for-15 career off him with a homer and six strikeouts. Melky Cabrera is 1-for-11 with a homer. The White Sox go with No. 5 starter Miguel Gonzalez (2-5, 4.41). He took a no-decision last time out in Seattle, allowing three runs and four hits in six innings.  Gonzalez has won once in his past seven starts. The Cubs' Ben Zobrist is 6-for-29 career off Gonzalez with two doubles and a  homer. Anthony Rizzo is 1-for-3 with a double.

 

Free MLB Pick: 'Over.' It is 9-1-1 in Arrieta's past 11 on the road. It is 4-1 in the White Sox's past five interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. 

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