MLB Picks: Top Capper Breaks Down Memorial Day's Three Best Bets

Swinging Johnson

Monday, May 30, 2016 1:00 PM GMT

Monday, May. 30, 2016 1:00 PM GMT

Let's get a head start on the week by fattening our bankroll with the best MLB picks on Monday's board. Don't forget these are early afternoon games today!

Giants (32-20, +9.9 units) vs. Braves (14-35, -14.70 units)
It doesn't take the advice of a sports handicapper to tell you to lay the lumber and bet a big favorite. Every square on the planet does that every day of the week but when there is a matchup that looks as tempting as this one and you can get the favorite for under -200 then there is real betting value and that's what we look for day in and day out in our MLB Picks.

Jeff Samardzija gets his 11th start of the season and looked impressive yet again in his last start when he worked six plus innings, allowing six hits and just one run in an 8-2 win over the Padres. Samardzija has been as good as advertised this season with a 7-2 mark and a 2.53 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP and is 2-1 when starting against the Braves over his career with an ERA of 2.10 and a WHIP of 0.896. His team's record is 2-2 (+1.0 units) in these starts.

The reason this line has not yet swelled beyond -200 is because Braves' pitcher Mike Foltynewicz has been decent this season, and of course the Braves are playing in their own sandbox this afternoon. However, Foltynewicz is 0-1 when starting against the Giants with an ERA of 5.68 and a WHIP of 1.263 and Atlanta has an abysmal offense this season. This should be a prime opportunity for Samardzija to mow through this anemic lineup and give the Giants an easy victory in this first of a four-game set.

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Free MLB Pick: Giants -190
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

 

Cardinals (26-25, -2.8 units) vs. Brewers (23-27, -1.7 units)
Let's not overthink this one. The Cardinals are a club with a good offense but a starting pitcher today, Carlos Martinez, who has gotten absolutely rocked in his last three starts. And when you consider that the Brewers have a lineup that can do damage with Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, budding star Jonathan Villar and big banger Chris Carter then you have the makings of what could be a very short outing for Mr. Martinez.

On the other hand we have Brewers' starter Junior Guerra who has been stellar over his last three performances allowing just three runs on 11 hits in 18 innings of work combined. While the Brew Crew is 5-0 over Guerra's last five starts the Cards are 0-5 over Martinez's last five appearances. For what it's worth, St. Louis has lost four of their last five Game 1 openers and Milwaukee is 4-1 in their last five home games against teams with a winning record. Let's grab the home pup here.

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Free MLB Pick: Milwaukee +112
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Reds (16-34, -16.4 units) vs. Rockies (23-26, +1.9 units)
I realize betting on bad teams doesn't exactly make you want to send it in with both hands but sometimes we have to look at the MLB Odds, the pitching matchup and how teams have been performing recently to justify such a stance. Such is the case in this game in Colorado this afternoon.

The Reds have had lousy pitching combined with dismal hitting. Not a recipe for success as evidenced by their 16-34 mark. They are not a team to tail on a regular basis but successful handicapping is not about doing the same things over and over but adjusting to situational plays and picking your spots. Cincinnati is in the right spot to cash this afternoon with Dan Straily chuckin' for the Reds. The 27-year-old righty owns a 2.72 ERA over his last six outings and did a nice job in holding the Dodgers to three runs on just three hits while striking out a career high-tying 11 over seven innings of work in last week's 3-1 road defeat.

Meanwhile, the Rockies' Chad Bettis may still have cobwebs after getting blasted in Boston to the tune of seven runs on seven hits and lasted just four plus innings in the club's 10-3 beatdown at the hands of the Red Sox. Bettis has met the Reds just once over his career where he took a 6-5 loss back in April in Cincinnati and surrendered three hits on three runs in the defeat.

Though the Reds are clearly not a good team their bats have come alive recently, posting 16 runs over the last three games. They now have their best pitcher on the mound against a middling at best ballclub that trots out a starter today who was shattered in his last outing.

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Free MLB Pick: Reds +136
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
MLB Record: 24-13, +10.94 Units

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