MLB Picks: Three Totals To Fatten your Wallet On Saturday Night

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, April 30, 2016 4:03 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 30, 2016 4:03 PM UTC

Our MLB analyst shares his three top totals on Saturday night’s portion of the card. Go inside and take advantage of his insight before making any of your MLB picks tonight.

Toronto (Happ) vs. Tampa Bay (Archer)
Let me get right to the heart of the matter. Joe West is slated to be the home plate umpire in this American League East Division game on Saturday. When West is behind the dish since 2014, games have gone 46-23-3 over the total. Putting those results into perspective and voiding the three pushes, 66.7% of those 69 games went over the total. It’s no wonder West has been labeled as a hitter friendly home plate umpire.

Despite a stellar performance during his last outing, Tampa Bay starter Chris Archer still has a lofty 5.47 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in five starts this season. Tampa Bay enters Saturday with an uninspiring .222 team batting average thus far in 2016. However, since 2015, Toronto has gone 31-14 (68.9%) over the total versus American League opponents with a team batting average of .255 or less. Those forty-five outings averaged a combined 11.1 runs scored per game.

Current MLB odds at Heritage clearly provides me with a best number for this totals wager.

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Free MLB Pick:  Over 7 -115
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


White Sox (Latos) vs. Orioles (Gausman)
White Sox starter Matt Latos has compiled an excellent 0.74 ERA during four starts this season, and all of those games stayed under the total. The White Sox bullpen has been terrific in 2016, evidenced by a staff ERA of 1.65 and a 0.98 WHIP. As a matter of fact, the White Sox have seen only six of their first twenty-four games go over the total.

Baltimore has gone over the total during just one of their ten home games in 2016. Similar to Saturday’s opponent, Baltimore’s bullpen has been lights out in April, evidenced by a superb 1.75 ERA as a staff, and that includes an even more impressive 1.36 ERA at home. Kevin Gausman was under a strict pitch count in his 2016 debut last Sunday. He was solid in that outing, allowing just 1 earned run on 3 hits while walking 2 during 5.0 innings of work.

By virtue of their 6-3 win on Saturday, Baltimore has won three straight games, and improved its season record to 14-8 (.636).

Any home team (Orioles) with a total of 8.0 or 8.5, coming off three or more wins in a row, and they have a .620 or better win percentage, resulted in those games going 33-7 (82.5%) under the total during the past five seasons.

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Free MLB Pick:  Under 8½ -115
Best Line Offered:  at BetOnline


Cincinnati (Simon) vs. Pittsburgh (Liriano)
Saying that Reds starter Alfredo Simon has been awful in his three starts in 2016 would be classified as a vast understatement. During those outings, Simon has a massive 15.11 ERA and 2.88 WHIP. He can’t expect much held from his bullpen which has compiled a lofty 6.29 ERA and allowed 19 home runs already.

Pittsburgh has produced some impressive offensive numbers over their previous seven games. During that stretch, Pittsburgh is averaging 7.0 runs per game while hitting .296 as a team and amassed a stellar .853 OPS. As a matter of fact, the Pirates have scored 8 runs or more in six of its last eight games. Saturday’s starter Francisco Liriano has been awful in his previous three outings, posting a sizable 6.46 ERA, and allowed 5 home runs in 15 1/3 innings pitched.

Relative to the current total, I like this game to be a high scoring affair, and one of my Saturday MLB picks will be indicative of that prediction.

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Free MLB Pick:  Over 8 +104
Best Line Offered:  at GTbets

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