MLB Picks of the Day: We Rely on Pitching Trends for Today's Winning Plays

Joe Catalano

Tuesday, September 22, 2015 2:58 PM GMT

Yesterday was a bit of a risk as we sided with the massive underdogs. Today we're going to use more caution as there are less opportunities to cash in with our MLB Picks as the season winds down.

Joe C. Record 146-96 +42.48 Units

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Yesterday, I was banking on an upset as David Price had a poor history against New York and the odds were extreme. Today, I'm banking on the Yankees again as that loss put them 3.5 games behind the Jays while Lou Severino gets the start and the odds are very appealing in the Yankees favor as odds makers are in love with the Jays once again.

These two teams are competing for a division title, but regardless, they will both make the playoffs and that alleviates some of the pressure in a game such as this in which there is a 2 game swing involved.

 

Sought After By Many
He may be only 4-3 with a 3.12 ERA in a small sampling, but Lou Severino is a future star and has some nasty stuff. Thus far, Severino has basically had things go his way except for a start. When he had a bad start, you could tell the it affected the young man and that's where manager Joe Girardi comes into play. Girardi protects his pitchers.

Severino will have a tall order as he faces the best offense in the MLB with Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, and Edwin Encarnacion all hitting 30 home runs or more. There is no let up until Severino get's to the bottom of the order. I look for Severino to come out strong as he's super-talented and has seen this team before and been rocked by this team before. Look for him to make the proper adjustments to put the Yankees in the best position possible.

New York is coming off of a 4-2 loss yesterday, but this was a game that they were expected to lose as David Price pitched 7 scoresless innings. The talent level decreases as Marco Estrada gets the start and guys like Brian McCann and Alex Rodriguez should have a bit of an easier time depsite Estrada still being a very good pitcher with a 13-8 record and 3.14 ERA. Just like Price, Estrada has an ERA over 4.00 against New York.

MLB Pick: New York Yankees +126 at 5Dimes 2 UNIT PLAY

 

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs: Jake Arrieta Gets the Start
That's all that you need to know. At 88-62, the Chicago Cubs have all of the incentive in the world to win this game as they are a Cubs team that we have never seen before behind 2 -25 home runs hitters in Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo and more importantly, Jake Arrieta (19-6, 1.96) looks for his 20th win of the season against a subpar Brewers team.

Sometimes, pitchers have trouble notching that 20th win on the first try, but at -300 odds on the moneyline and a lot on the line for the Chicago Cubs where the post-season is concerned at Wrigley Field, I don't see that happening here. Just to be careful, we're going to bet the run-line with our MLB pick today, as I have great faith in the pitching and hitting in this game for the Cubbies.

MLB Pick: Chicago Cubs -1.5 -130 at 5Dimes 2 UNIT PLAY