There will be a lot of people focusing on trying to beat the MLB betting spreads tonight, but we believe there's value to be had with some total plays too. Check out what we mean inside.
Cincinnati Reds (Cueto) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Lohse)
These two teams are in the basement of the division right now, but it was Cincinnati that got the series off on the right foot, breaking out the big bats in a 9-6 victory yesterday. Jason Marquis picked up the winning decision and the Reds got a lot of production at the plate, namely from Jay Bruce, who hit a two-run homer in the fourth inning.
After a nice win yesterday, Cincinnati is a heavy favorite on the MLB odds board once more tonight, this time priced in the -190 to -200 range. That's because Johnny Cueto's on the mound, and he's been as dominant as ever early on this season and now comes up against a Milwaukee club that's struggling mightily, especially on the injury front.
Cueto has been unlucky only to have picked up one win, as he's rocking a 1.86 ERA and 0.83 WHIP through his first four starts of the season. In that span he's sported a 32:5 K:BB ratio, so he's clearly been dominating each time he takes the bump. Tonight Cueto will be opposed by Kyle Lohse, who shook off a rough first few starts to shut down this same Cincinnati (7.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K) team in his latest outing.
As long as Lohse has decent stuff again tonight, we think the UNDER has a great shot of cashing. We feel pretty strongly that Cueto will be able to mow down this weak-looking Milwaukee team, and if Lohse can match him, we should be seeing a pitcher's duel and a low-scoring final total. We're be taking the UNDER as one of our MLB picks for a busy Tuesday.
MLB Pick: Under 7 at 5Dimes
Boston Red Sox (Buchholz) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Hutchison)
We know there's going to be a lot of big bats on display when the Red Sox and Blue Jays meet up again tonight. Boston escaped with a 6-5 win in the opener yesterday and will now look to make it two wins out of two in this series.
We'll have Clay Buchholz and Drew Hutchison on the mound for this evening's game at Fenway, two of the more inconsistent pitchers you're going to find in baseball. It seems like they can either completely dominate or get shelled, which makes it a maddening task to discern where the best value is. How can we feel good about our picks when we don't trust either pitcher?
The good news is that we can always pivot with our sports picks, and that's what we're going to do. Oh, this is a total picks of the day article? Nevermind then. Back to the point - we don't know what we're going to get out of either one of these starters. Buchholz holds a 4.84 ERA but has looked a lot better in his latest two assignments, while Hutchison owns a 5.48 ERA through his first starters. Like Buchholz however, he has had a couple excellent outings mixed in there, with the two's ERAs getting blown up because of a couple blowups.
What that all means is that it's relatively easy for us to take the OVER here, despite the inflated number. We don't feel good about taking either team on the moneyline, and we don't have full confident in the two starters. Add it up and we think the OVER is the right MLB pick with expectation that the bats will show up today.
MLB Pick: OVER 8.5 at BetOnline