MLB Picks of the Day: Three Large Favorites Try to Get Back on Track

Doug Upstone

Saturday, June 6, 2015 5:21 PM GMT

Today’s sportsbooks betting odds are not for the meek of heart with several large favorites and substitute pitchers. Yet like every day we forge ahead to make our MLB picks and hopefully show a profit.

No question today my three favorite MLB picks are chalky versus the MLB odds, but I like my chances as a baseball handicapper to have another winning day just like yesterday here.

 

Indians Scalp Baltimore
In just quickly glancing, Cleveland favored by -145 appears a touch high because the starting pitching matchup of Ubaldo Jimenez (3-3, 3.12) and Danny Salazar (5-1, 3.79 ERA) looks more competitive, especially when comparing earned run averages. However, Cleveland is 7-2 when Salazar is their starter and continually has given them a strong chance to win all season, even when they were really having a rough go the first six weeks.

Jimenez ERA and WHIP are the lowest since his best season in 2010 with Colorado when he was 19-8. There is always a time bomb feel about the right-hander, who can seemingly go along for awhile and look good and then get shelled repeatedly. He’s not been nearly as proficient outside of Maryland with a 4.76 ERA and the Orioles are 1-4 in those starts.

Baltimore won the series lid-lifter 5-2 last night which gives them consecutive wins after a five-game losing streak. However, the Birds have not been able to string a group of wins together all last season and are 1-8 after two or more victories. Even with the W last night, Baltimore is only 8-16 on the road and takes it on the chin again today.

MLB Pick – Cleveland -152 at The Greek 

 

Tigers Win, Finally
The Detroit Tigers with each passing day are looking more like the Milwaukee Brewers than the team which was favored to win the AL Central. The Detroit offense has gone stone cold batting in .211 and averaging 2.4 runs a game in their last 11 tries. The Tigers offense was thought to be a powerhouse, especially in the top six spots of the batting order, yet they rank 13th in the AL in home runs and have four in the past 11 contests. A loss to Chicago today would be an unfortunate milestone for the four-time division champs falling below .500 for the first time in over 35 months.

Baseball bettors believe help is on the way in the name of David Price (4-2, 3.15 ERA) who is 4-1 with a 2.68 ERA in his last seven meetings versus Chicago. GTBets.eu opened the Tigers at -150 and at last look there money line was lower than other books that were primarily around -170.

In the past three seasons Price is 12-1 in road games versus teams who draw three walks or less a game. (Team's Record) His mound foe is John Danks (3-4, 4.81) who is off a complete game shutout despite allowing 10 hits (5 were extra bases), which is the first time that has happened since 1914. In the past two years the Chicago left-hander has only made it past the eighth inning once and it would not be a stretch to expect his to not have his best stuff tonight.

With the Chi-Sox and Danks 3-13 off a win, Detroit ends their eight-game nightmare.

MLB Pick – Detroit -160 at BetOnline

 

The King Wings a Winner in Coffee Town
Seattle has lost eight straight and the natives are getting restless, loudly booing the Mariners last night, who have one win in the midst of an 11-game homestand. Tampa Bay has handed Seattle the past two setbacks in very low scoring affairs of 2-1 and 1-0.

Felix Hernandez (8-2, 2.63 ERA) will try and be the stopper and he will face the Rays who are 6-2 since King Felix threw a complete game 3-0 gem against Tampa Bay on May 27th. If the Seattle offense is to awaken, Alex Colome (3-2, 5.05 ERA) might be the right candidate since he has 6.28 ERA in three road starts. The Mariners are -170 favorites and even I question the sanity of forecasting two large faves to end extended losing streaks. Nonetheless, I trust Price and Felix and favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like the M’s, scoring 4.2 or fewer runs a game, against an ordinary AL starting pitcher (ERA = 4.70 to 5.70), with a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start, are 64-21 since 2011.

MLB Pick – Seattle -170 at Bovada