MLB Picks of the Day: Three Alluring Plays to Cash in Big Tonight

Doug Upstone

Saturday, May 16, 2015 1:52 PM UTC

Saturday, May. 16, 2015 1:52 PM UTC

It is a Saturday in the spring and you have things to accomplish, so let’s attack the MLB odds from the sportsbooks and get ready to place our sports picks and get on with our day.

The way the board is setting up, I will have two underdogs and run line play against the MLB betting odds, so let’s get to and see if I can improve on 60 percent accuracy on last 35 MLB picks here.


Phillies Play Well, It Will Not Be Enough
Philadelphia has won three in a row for the first time this season and actually is .500 at home, which remarkable when you realize they are scoring 2.9 runs per game at home. However, they have gotten very strong pitching in these victories and given up just seven total runs.

Not sure this will continue with Jerome Williams (2-3, 5.21 ERA) the Phillies starter. The Phils right-hander has been better at home where both his victories have come and his ERA is quite a bit better at 3.42. But Williams pitching repertoire is ordinary and Arizona has the personnel like Paul Goldschmidt to knock him around and at least maintain their 4.5 runs per game average on the road.

Next, Archie Bradley (2-0, 1.80) returns for the Diamondbacks and he had gotten off to a very strong start before being hit in the face. This is a talented young pitcher who is skilled in keeping the ball low and with Philadelphia a terrible offensive club, Bradley should be able to keep them at their average or less.

Dating back 18 years, with many very good teams, the Phillies are only 13-31 after three straight wins by two runs or less. This contest at the time this was posted had Philadelphia as a slight favorite at places like GTBets and I’ll support the very small underdog.

MLB Pick – Arizona -104


Texas in Good Underdog Spot
Cleveland and the Rangers are going to require extended winning streaks just to sniff .500 any time soon. After a thoroughly dismal start, the Indians have won three of five and will send one of their better pitchers in Danny Salazar (4-1, 3.27). Cleveland has had their way with Texas having taken them down seven times in a row and is 12-1 in recent get-togethers. Salazar is coming off a special performance in which he retired 21 in a row after surrendering a leadoff home run and fanning 11 Twins over seven innings for the 8-2 victory. His 48 punch-outs in his first five starts are the most by an Indians hurler in 47 years.

However, Texas brings a gunslinger as well to this showdown, just of a different kind. Colby Lewis (3-2, 2.40) for the first time in a few years is completely healthy and the results have been sensational. Besides a terrific ERA, Lewis WHIP is only 1.02, conceding 35 hits and 11 walks over 45 innings, doing a fantastic locating his pitches down in the zone. When pitching at Globe Life Park this season, Lewis has a 2.21 ERA and faces a Cleveland club who has not been able to enjoy any prosperity and is 0-8 having won two of three this season.

If Salazer has a weakness thus far it is the long ball. The Tribe is a -130 away favorite and road faves with a money line of -125 or higher with a starting pitcher who gives up one or more homers a start, after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are 7-21 the last three seasons.

MLB Pick – Texas +120


Dodgers to Dominate Colorado
After breaking their 11-game losing streak, the Rockies went right back to their losing ways in falling to Los Angeles 6-4 last night. The task will not be easier this evening facing Zack Greinke (5-0, 1.52), who is 22-1 with a 1.95 ERA in his last 32 starts against NL West foes, which includes winning his last four against Colorado with a 2.10 ERA.

The Rockies will send Jorge De La Rosa (0-2, 9.56) up the hill, who hasn't gone beyond the fifth inning in any of his four starts this year. De La Rosa has no command of fastball, with 12 walks in 16 innings. If the Rocks righty continues to throw this way the Dodgers explosive offense will rock like they did last Sunday (five runs in four innings).

With the money line at around -250, as an MLB baseball handicapper the run line appears to be a good option at -125. Greinke is a super home park pitcher and is 8-1 on the RL in home games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base and Colorado is a dismal 4-11 vs. the RL in road contests against a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start the last two seasons.

MLB Pick – L.A. Dodgers -125 Run Line

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