MLB Picks of the Day: Saturday's Pair of Road Teams Worth a Wager

Joe Catalano

Saturday, July 4, 2015 1:31 PM GMT

Happy 4th of July to all the bettors out there. We have baseball all day & an opportunity for you to make some money on your day off work with our MLB Picks as there's a really appealing slate today. 

New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
Matt Harvey vs. Zack Greinke
Both of these teams are quite similar as they have elite pitching staffs and terrible offenses. The one thing that stands out in this matchup, which is pretty close to a draw, is that the bettor can pick the Mets and Matt Harvey at +163 odds.

To find Harvey at these odds is rare and might be worth the risk. For the season, Harvey is 7-5 with a 2.99 ERA. We're not seeing as many strikeouts from the New London, Connecticut native and the Mets haven't helped him out offensively, but when Matt Harvey is at his best, he very well could be the best pitcher in baseball.

 

Apprehension
I sense a little apprehension on Harvey's part as he's not willing to pitch with the velocity that he did before in fear of re-injuring himself. A year and a half is a long recovery period. However, he's a pitcher that makes money off of intimidation with the hard stuff and he must "bring it".

Another issue is run support, in Matt Harvey's last 3 starts, he's only allowed 1 earned run in 19 2/3 innings. The Mets offense is at a low part in the season and doing their starters such as deGrom and Harvey an injustice. Harvey's one weakness this season is that he leaves the game in the hands of the bullpen as he's lucky to get 7 innings at best. This game should be a pitcher's duel. Aside from Adrian Gonzalez and Joc Pedersen, the Dodgers also have a weak lineup as they send out Zack Greinke .

 

Near perfection
Greinke has pitched as well as a pitcher can pitch as he carries a 1.53 ERA to go along with a 6-2 record. In his last 3 starts, he hasn't allowed a single run and just 11 hits in 20 2/3 innings. You would figure that he would pick up at least 2 victories during this time ,but Greinke has only picked up one victory to go along with 2 no-decisions. This game is basically a wash and with Harvey's potential and the odds, I'm siding with the Mets.

MLB Pick: New York Mets +163 at 5Dimes

 

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
Is It Too Late?
We're not even up to the All-Star break and the Milwaukee Brewers have dug themselves up such a big hole that it would be difficult to think post season. That said, they're starting to hit like they did last season when they were an offensive powerhouse.

Milwaukee is on a 6 game winning streak and still 18.5 games out of 1st place in the National League Central Division. The Brewers face a Reds team with a little more pitching with Johnny Cueto as the ace, but the Reds don't have the momentum or the talent that Milwaukee has. The fact that Milwaukee plays this game on the road makes the MLB betting odds more appealing.

The Brewers are coming off of a 12-1 defeat of the Reds as 3 Brewers homered, sparked by Carlos Gomez's grand slam home run in the 7th inning. I definitely liked Gomez in the leadoff spot, but he'll have to settle for 5th in the order as Parra is more of a leadoff man and Gomez has basically lost his spot.

That said, Gomez is very talented and I expect him to have a big 2nd half of the season. If you look at this Brewers lineup, there are few weakness. They have one of the best hitting catchers in the game in Jonathan Lucroy, who was 3 for 5 yesterday, Ryan Braun, who has the potential to be a superstar without the PED's, Carlos Gomez, Adam Lind, who is hitting a solid .291 in Milwaukee and Aramis Ramirez, who is having a poor season, but has the potential to blast the baseball out of the park during any at-bat.

As always, Milwaukee's weakness is their pitching. However, they're facing a team with the same weakness and coming into this game with a tremendous amount of momentum. Take Milwaukee as your MLB pick.

MLB Pick: Milwaukee -117 at 5Dimes