MLB Picks of the Day: Profitable Plays on the Money Line

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, April 21, 2015 1:37 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 21, 2015 1:37 PM UTC

We are back to a complete slate of games for Tuesday which gives you and I more choices for MLB picks. Even with this, first impressions are that sportsbooks have done a good job, making the job harder.

Nevertheless, the confidence level is high after a pair of perfect 3-0 showings against the betting odds here last week and I will attack again with three more choices.


Orioles vs. Blue Jays: In the Battle of Birds, Toronto’s the Choice
The Blue Jays are in the midst of an ugly homestand at 2-5. You do not need to be a NCIS member to trace their poor results; they are right out in the open. Toronto pitchers are failing to do their job, allowing 4.9 runs per contest and in their last five games, even worse at 5.8 RPG. Manager John Gibbons needs a stopper somebody who can put together a well-pitched game and provide the Blue Jays a real chance for a W. In the famous words from the Price is Right TV show, “Mark Buehrle, come on down!”

The crafty lefthander can still do the job and is 2-0 this season with 3.75 ERA. Buehrle first assignment is attempting to cool off the Orioles Adam Jones, who is batting .412. His history suggests he will and veteran and his teammates are 23-11 when he takes the ball and he certainly has stopper qualities over his lengthy career with an 80-42 mark if his team is off a defeat. (Team’s record)

With his mound opponent Bud Norris (0-1, 12.38 ERA) scuffling and known more as home hurler compared to the road, if Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista break out of their long slumps, the Jays at -133 for MLB picks is inviting.

MLB Pick – Toronto -133


Padres vs. Rockies: Rockies Rebound and Return to Winning Ways
There was a great deal of discussion about Colorado starting 6-0 on the road after posting just 21 victories for the entire season in 2014 away from the Rocky Mountains. However, a trip to L.A. took the wind out of the sails of that momentum by being swept by the Dodgers and opening a homestand against the other good club in the NL West has the Rockies on a four-game losing streak.

The hot-hitting start has given way to temperatures cooler then Pike’s Peak, with Colorado hitters tallying nine runs in their past four outings and those pitchers that did such a good job through nine games, have been battered for 34 runs and 50 base hits since.

With these figures and San Diego on an 8-2 rollout, why would I as a MLB baseball handicapper prefer the Rocks here? It starts with the MLB odds having Colorado -120 to -125, which is just little below what the Rockies should be as a home favorite in an even pitching matchup. If anything the Padres Brandon Morrow (0-0, 1.29) should have an edge over Tyler Matzek (1-0, 1.80), but the oddsmakers are not seeing it that way.

Morrow over the last several years has been injury-prone and he’s been sports bettor’s nightmare, putting together two or three good starts and then hammered when trusted. Next, I’ll leave you with this, road underdogs like San Diego with a money line of +100 to +150, having won three of their last four games and sporting a win percentage of 62 percent or higher and facing a team with a winning record is 6-28 the past five seasons.

MLB Pick – Colorado -122


Rangers vs. Diamondbacks: Arizona Slithers to another Victory
By now, it would have been assumed Arizona would have a losing record and on their way to another desultory campaign. But the Diamondbacks are ignoring prognosticators and their offense is ranked third in the National League in runs scored at 4.6 per contest, thanks to All-Star Paul Goldschmidt (.313 BA, .421 OBP, 5 HRs) and outfielders A.J. Pollack (.356 BA, .431 OBP) and Ender Inciarte (.327 BA).

Arizona is 7-6 (+3.3 units) and opens interleague play against Texas who is 5-8 and being outscored by 1.2 runs a game. The Rangers starter Nick Martinez (2-0, 0.00) has been superb and will need another exceptional outing because the Texas bullpen is already taxed with the most innings used in the AL with 55.

If he struggles, the D-Backs should be able to pile up runs, leaving Chase Anderson (0-0, 4.09) to do his job and being supported by a bullpen which has a 2.70 ERA.

Texas is a +130 road underdog and they are 25-46 as dogs of +100 to +150 and 46-70 when facing right-handed pitching.

MLB Pick – Arizona -139 at YouWager

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