MLB Picks Of the Day: Pair of Totals Backed by Favorable Stats

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, September 22, 2015 12:50 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 22, 2015 12:50 PM UTC

Don’t make a move on Tuesday’s MLB games between the Rays/Red Sox and Angels/Astros without first reading our compelling betting preview article. We’re sharing our top two totals picks which comes on each of these games, and specify exactly why these selections will land you in the winner’s circle.

Rays (Moore) vs. Red Sox (Owens) 7:10 PM ET
Matt Moore spent the entire first half of 2015 on the disabled list, and since his return has struggled mightily. He’s gone 2-7 in his team starts with a 7.06 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. Moore has been even worse in four road starts, compiling an 8.64 ERA and 2.04 WHIP during those outings. The Rays southpaw made two starts versus Boston this year, and had a mammoth 13.50 ERA. The Rays are averaging a respectable 4.7 runs per game and have a stellar .810 OPS during their previous seven contests.

Henry Owens is coming off a pair of very good outings. However, his whole body of work since being called up from AAA Pawtucket has been less than inspiring. He’s gone 7-1 over the total with Boston while posting a somewhat lofty 4.33 ERA. Owens has really had a difficult time during four starts at Fenway Park, evidenced by a large 6.86 ERA, and he surrendered 6 home runs in only 21.0 innings pitched. The Red Sox have amassed 10 hits or more in five of the last six, and nine of their previous eleven games. Since game 82 of the season, Boston has gone 44-23 (65.7%) over the total, and that includes 26-8 (12.1 RPG) surpassing the number when facing an opponent with a losing record.

If it wasn’t apparent from reading the last two paragraphs, then let me be straight and to the point. I like this game to be a high scoring affair for one of my MLB picks on Tuesday. According to current offshore MLB betting odds endorsed by Sportsbook Review, the total is split evenly between 8.5 and 9.0.

Free MLB Pick: Play the Rays and Red Sox over 8.5 (-113) at 5Dimes.

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Angels (Santiago) vs. Astros (McCullers) 8:10 PM ET
Southpaw Hector Santiago has pitched brilliantly in three starts versus Houston this year. During those outings he posted an excellent 1.40 ERA and all three games went under the total. Current MLB betting odds at BetOnline indicate the Angels are a +145 money line underdog. Since 2013, the Angels are 21-8 under the total as a money line underdog of +100 to +150 when Hector Santiago is their starting pitcher.

Lance McCullers has pitched extremely well this season at Minute Maid Park in Houston. During those nine starts, he’s posted a superb 1.61 ERA in addition to an impressive 0.96 WHIP. He was also very efficient during three starts against the Angels in 2015, evidenced by his 2.00 ERA in those outings. Houston has gone 31-21 (59.6%) under the total this year when facing a southpaw starting pitcher.

Free MLB Pick: Play the Angels and Astros under 8.5.

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