Beating sportsbooks odds is never easy but I am pleased to say I have won 20 of my last 32 MLB Picks, so I consider myself both good and lucky and not necessarily in that order.
Consider the events of recent days: St. Louis has lost three of five, we knew Colorado was going to win eventually, but at Dodger Stadium in come-from-behind fashion to break 11-game losing streak?! And what about the first-place New York Mets being swept in a four-game series?
Giants vs. Reds: San Francisco Overcomes Woes in the Queen City
Cincinnati has defeated San Francisco 12 of the last 15 times they have met and even MLB baseball handicappers who dislike trends cannot ignore that one. This is a good chunk of the reason the Giants have gone from -160 to -130 road favorites even with their ace Madison Bumgarner (3-2, 3.30 ERA) on the mound. With how he has pitched, the Reds Jason Marquis (3-2, 5.66) is rather fortunate to have three wins, but he actually been fairly strong against San Fran with 7-5 record and a 2.84 ERA in 16 starts.
There is no disputing the Giants have not matched well with Cincy, but Bumgarner is a bulldog on the road as a favorite and he and championship teammates are 13-1 at MLB betting odds of -110 or higher the last two seasons. The total of 7.5 has been a comfort zone for the team in black and orange and with the lefty on the mound they are 12-1 away when the total is 7 to 8.5. Though the Reds have played better in winning three straight, they are 15-26 after three or more victories since 2013.
MLB Pick – San Francisco -130 at The Greek
Rays vs. Twins: Rays Still Confounding the Experts
As we reach the middle of May this weekend, about the last place most baseball bettors would have figured Tampa Bay would be in is second place in the AL East. The Rays lost important elements in the front office and dugout, yet here they are one-game behind the New York Yankees in the division race at 20-16 (+4 units).
What makes this a cool matchup is Minnesota is equally as surprising at 19-16 (+6.9). At places like WagerWeb the Twins were either a Pick or slight favorites and if this remains true, it will be only the seventh time in 36 contests Minnesota will be a favorite.
The Twins will have a difficult assignment in Jake Odorizzi (3-2, 2.09) who has allowed one run in each of his two starts this month, spanning 13 2/3 innings. The Rays right-hander would have a better record except his teammates have not helped him, with two or fewer runs in six of his seven starts and a total of 2.28 per nine innings for one of the lowest marks among baseball starters.
However, Tampa Bay will face a laboring Phil Hughes (2-4, 5.11) who is 3-6 with a 5.02 ERA in 11 career starts against the Rays. Tampa Bay is 11-4 versus winning teams this season and is 13-3 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 the last three seasons. Having won 10 of 11 at Target Field, I like the Rays chances.
MLB Pick – Tampa Bay -104 at 5Dimes
Brewers vs. Mets: Mets Happy to Be Home
New York is thrilled to be back home after a four-day trip to Chicago in which the Cubs took all four games. The Mets are 13-3 at Citi Field this year and will hand the ball to Bartolo Colon (6-1, 3.30) who is 18-3 versus teams like Milwaukee outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season the last three seasons. (Team's Record>
The Brewers will counter with Kyle Lohse (2-4, 7.03), whose lack of success this season aligns with his record at the Mets at 0-4 with a 6.08 ERA.
Though it is not always a series opener, in the past three years Colon and whatever team he has played for are 12-1 on Friday’s, so add Mets money line to your MLB pick tonight.
MLB Pick – N.Y. Mets -142 at BookMaker