MLB Picks of the Day: Know When to Eat the Chalk & When Not

Joe Catalano

Sunday, June 21, 2015 1:47 PM GMT

Sunday, Jun. 21, 2015 1:47 PM GMT

Sundays are always the toughest days to handicap as almost all of the baseball games are played early but that's okay, because I am really good at what I do!

Capper Catalano Record- 45-23 +19.60 Units

 

New York Mets vs. Atlanta BravesMatt Harvey vs. the Atlanta Braves Offense
No offense to Julio Teheran, but that's what this game comes down to. In a normal year, Teheran would be a concern, but he simply hasn't been effective this season with a 4-3 record and a 5.07 ERA.

Teheran has allowed opposing hitters to hit .290 off of him this season and in his last game, allowed 6 runs and 13 hits in 6 1/3 innings to the Boston Red Sox in a 4-3 loss. He has been lucky where his record is concerned because he's been pitching a ton of average outings and getting no-decisions. He comes into this game as a slight betting underdog at home even though the Mets have lost 4 games in a row. 

 

Matt Harvey Day
I'm always going to give Matt Harvey the huge label as he has the potential to be right there with Clayton Kershaw amongst the top pitchers in the league.

Harvey hasn't had the luck that Kershaw has had as he's had to endure Tommy John Surgery right when he was catching fire. This has obviously affected him as the velocity on his fast ball has been less.

I think the reason for it is that Harvey fears another long-term injury. A pitcher can never pitch with apprehension as he will get knocked around. We're only seeing 75% of Matt Harvey and even at that level, he's 7-4, with a 3.32 ERA. Although Harvey has averaged a strikeout per inning, he's appeared to be laboring to get to 6 or 7 innings at times.

Harvey is coming off of one of his best outings of the season, going 7 innings and allowing just 4 hits to the Toronto Blue Jays. He's going to need something like that here as the Mets offense is very unpredictable and Travis d'arnaud. who had been having a very nice season, is injured.

Lucas Duda, in my opinion, is the big disappointment on this team. The Mets look for his power and his 10 HR, 32 RBI, and .273 BA has been done quietly and is not enough. Daniel Murphy has also not been able to get on a roll and when you look at the Braves lineup, you would say that the Mets are in trouble.

I say if you can get Matt Harvey at these MLB odds, you take it. Good pitching wins baseball games. I'm going to look for New York to break their losing streak in Atlanta.

MLB Pick- New York Mets -128 at 5 Dimes

 

Sunday Night Baseball

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles DodgersA Toss Up At Worst
The one thing that sticks out to me in this game is the odds. I'm not saying that I have total faith in Tim Lincecum (7-3, 3.31), but he's coming off of a solid effort against the Seattle Mariners in a 6-2 win and the Giants have been beating up on the Dodgers.

Odds makers have San Francisco as a +159 underdog. Without talking about Buster Posey (10 HR, 41 RBI, .295), Nori Aoki (2 HR, 19 RBI, .317 BA, and Joe Panik ( a 6 HR, 26 RBI, .307 BA) and the fact that all three of these players have .370 OBP% or better, the Giants have outscored the Dodgers 14-7 in the the last 2 games, which equated to wins.

I know that the Dodgers have Joc Pederson (18 HR, 34 RBI, 251 BA), Howie Kendrick and a collapsing Adrian Gonzalez, who has seen his average go from .370 early in the season and has dropped to .290. The Dodgers do have the better overall record by a 1/2 game, but the Giants are the better team and the starting pitching in this matchup is fairly even. You have to roll the dice and go with MLB pick on the underdog in this game as the Giants look for the sweep on national television. This is not a game that I love, but the odds and recent performance dictate the pick and that's S.F.

MLB Pick- San Francisco Giants +159

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