MLB Picks of the Day Feature Money Line & Total Plays to Maximize Thursday's Profit

Joe Catalano

Thursday, August 13, 2015 12:37 PM GMT

Thursday, Aug. 13, 2015 12:37 PM GMT

We have a short slate tonight on the MLB odds board, with only 9 games scheduled. This doesn't mean there's no value to be found, on the contrary, here are 2 winning MLB picks for tonight!

Joe C. Record 105-59 +51.67 Units

Just as I lay claim to being a top capper, we're hit with a somewhat abbreviated Thursday schedule which looks very difficult indeed. The plus side is the goal for today as I'm sitting on a ton of house money. Forcing things when betting is the wrong thing to do and it only leads to losses.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals

An Expected Low Total
This is basically a repeat of yesterday when I took the under 6.5 and it hit as the level of pitching is very high in this series. That said, the Pirates are digging their own grave as a St. Louis sweep would be devastating.

The Bucs are now 7 games behind the Cards and they need a win very badly. They send Francisco Liriano (7-6, 3.13) to the mound and he'll be opposed by Lance Lynn (9-6, 2.76). By the looks of these records, both pitchers aren't getting the proper run support and that's just what I'm expecting in this game. The only thing that concerns me is that Liriano has the capability to be an enforcer and he can also give up 7 to 8 runs in one inning. I'm thinking that the importance of this game will bring out the best in Francisco Liriano.

As for Lynn, he's been a bit inconsistent as of late, but is coming off of 6 scoreless innings against the Milwaukee Brewers in which he picked up the victory. He did allow runners on base and has the tendency to do so, but he also averages over a strikeout per inning and players such as Pedro Alvarez are prone to the "K".

 

Good Pitching Wins
You look up and down the Cardinals lineup and there's really nothing exceptional there. Matt Carpernter is hitting .266 and Matt Holliday and Matt Adams are out of action. Randall Grichuk and Jason Heyward have filled in admirably; both hitting in the .280's, but neither player is a star despite Grichuk's flair for the dramatics. 

 

Little Man, Big Numbers
From a Pirates perspective, there's no Josh Harrison and Andrew McCutchen is really starting to pick up the pace as he's hitting .458 with 3 HR and 10 RBI in the last week and has 18 HR, 76 RBI and a .395 OBP% this season. That OBP number is always very underesimated in importance and McCutchen has delivered where that's concerned as he's on base 4 out of every 10 times at bat.

While the total is a bit scary to most bettors, the under should still win out in the end and that's the direction that we're taking.

MLB Pick- Pittsburgh/ St. Louis Under 6.5 at 5Dimes - 2 UNIT PLAY

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Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants

The New Stephen Strasburg
Time off has been very good to Strasburg as the fans got to see the highly touted star that we all expected in his last start. In his last start, Strasburg was a beast, throwing 12 strikeouts in 7 innings at Dodger Stadium while allowing 1 run on 3 hits. Now, Strasburg must face another National League West team in the San Francisco Giants and although the Giants aren't in first place in the division, history will tell you that they're a playoff contender as they've won multiple World Series in the last decade with no legitimate superstars; Just 2nd tier hitters such as Buster Posey and Hunter Pence and the pitching has been the deciding factor.

 

A Poor Note
We look at San Francisco's starter in Ryan Vogelsong (7-8, 4.26) and he's been a disaster this season. Actually, the Giants have used him in muliple roles and it hasn't been working out as Vogelsong hasn't seen a win since July 17th. He might not see a lot of innings and it will be up to the Giants bullpen to face the likes of Harper, Zimmeran, Escobar, and Desmond. Washington is letting the Mets get away from them in the division as they're 3.5 games behind the Metropolitans and I expect Stephen Strasburg to stop the bleeding.

MLB Pick- Washington -120 at 5Dimes - 2 UNIT PLAY

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