MLB Picks of the Day: Betting Value Found With Bumgarner at Coors Field & Cole in St. Louis

Joe Catalano

Sunday, September 6, 2015 2:33 PM GMT

It's Labor Day Weekend and what better way to celebrate this weekend as the season comes down to the wire than a with a couple of victories in our MLB Picks of the Day.

Joe C. Record 132-82 +46.46 Units

San Francisco Giants at Colorado RockiesThe Coors Field Betting Totals Rule
I was once very successful with this rule, but have somewheat strayed away from it. With a very small late game slate on Sunday, it's the perfect time to go back to it. It's simple; whenever the Rockies are facing an average pitcher or worse at Coors Field, you take the over the total no matter how high it is. When they're facing an above average pitcher or better, you either take the under on a bloated total of leave the game alone.

In this case, I like the under 10 -111 as Madison Bumgarner (16-7, 2.96) has been spectacular this season and he faces Yohan Flande, who has actually pitched well even though he doesn't provide a ton of innings.

 

Pitching Excellence
I'm not even going to focus on the power hitting of Carlos Gonzalez and Nolan Arenado because good pitching wins games and Bumgarner has been a beast as of late.

In his last 6 games, he's allowed 8 runs in 44 2/3 innings while going 5-1. Bumgarner gets decisions because he provides a ton of innings and this is the type of pitcher that will give the Rockies trouble. Aside from that, the Giants need the win as they've won just 3 out of their last 10 games and are 70-66 and 7.5 games behind the Dodgers. Just like Pittsburgh, this is a must win situation for San Francisco, but against a bottom-feeder.

MLB Pick: San Francisco/Colorado Under 10 at 5Dimes -111 3 UNIT PLAY

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsA Regular Occurence
For the last half decade, the National League Central Division has been coming down to these two teams. The rules have been changed with the wild card and the 2nd place team (the Pittsburgh Pirates) at the moment are a shoe in to make it into the playoffs, but both teams would like to be division champions and St. Louis always appears to outlast Pittsburgh.

Currently, we take a look at the standings and see that the Cards are 6.5 games up on the Bucs, but this game does have a 2 game swing involved, therefore it's almost a must win for Pittsburgh if they're thinking about a division title.

 

In Good Hands?
The Pirates certainly are in good hands as Gerrit Cole (15-8, 2.64 ERA) gets the start as he's been nothing short of spectacular. The only issue with Cole is that he's picked the wrong time to pitch poorly.

In the months of August and September, he's went from a 2.29 ERA to a 2.64 ERA and is 0-4 with 2 no decisions in his last 6 starts. In a couple of these starts, Cole can be forgiven as he just didn't get the run support, but I hate to say it; he's just choked. Against a St. Louis team, which is 87-48 and 49-21 at home, he Cole can't pitch this way if he expects a win. The Cardinals are on their way to an easy 100 win season.

 

What Does Cole Have To Worry About?
Aside from going toe to toe with veteran John Lackey as the slated starters, Cole can beat this Redbirds offense with a solid start. St Louis is loaded with depth of middle of the road hitters such as Matt Carpenter (21 HR, 71 RBI, .261 BA), Jason Heyward (11 HR, 50 .287 BA, 20 SB), Jhonny Peralta (16 HR, 60 RBI, .279 BA) and a few others.

In total, there are 8 hitters in the Cardinals lineup, including Grichuk, that are hitting from .261 to .287. This means that there's no lapse in the offense, but no stud such as Andrew McCutchen. The Cardinals, in my opinion, aren't as good as their record indicates. However, Cole has pitched so poorly and to get the Cardinals at just -110 MLB odds, you have to make them your MLB pick.

MLB Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -110 at 5Dimes 2 UNIT PLAY