MLB Picks of the Day: Betting Trio Includes Top Money Pitchers

Jason Lake

Thursday, May 7, 2015 11:12 AM GMT

Thursday, May. 7, 2015 11:12 AM GMT

Nick Martinez and Collin McHugh have combined for 11 team wins, zero losses and 11.51 units of profit. They'll be in our MLB picks for Thursday. So will Corey Kluber.

Jason's 2015 record as of May 6: 14-8, plus-5.80 units ML; 0-1, minus-1.05 units Total

If the starting pitcher is the key to beating the baseball odds, then our latest three-pack of MLB picks can't go wrong. We've got two pitchers who have yet to taste defeat this year, and we've got another guy who hasn't won a single game. Cy Young is spinning in his grave. Let's see if we can rack up some of that sweet, sweet Thursday cash.

 

Cleveland at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. ET)
You can't blame Corey Kluber (2.96 FIP) for how poorly his team is doing. True, the reigning AL Cy Young winner is 8.28 units in the hole after leading the Tribe (10-16, minus-8.98 units) to six straight losses. But Kluber has only gotten 2.33 runs per game of support, and judging by that .366 BABIP, his fielders aren't doing him any favors, either. Having said that, Kluber has struggled lately after opening the 2015 campaign with three straight quality starts.

The Royals (17-10, plus-6.87 units) are 6.5 games up on Cleveland in the AL Central, but they've dropped four of their last seven games. Edinson Volquez (2.71 FIP) has been remarkable thus far; sadly for him, Kansas City is 2-3 and 1.42 units in the hole after his five starts. We could roll with the UNDER in this situation – can't trust those regression monsters – but we're going to keep kicking Kluber while he's down.

Free MLB Pick: Take the Royals at BetOnline

 

Texas at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. ET)
Look up, waaaaay up, and you'll see Nick Martinez (3.43 FIP) at the top of the MLB money charts. He's already earned 6.31 units for the Rangers, who are still in last place in the AL West, but they've improved to 11-16 (minus-1.60 units) after a three-game sweep of the first-place Houston Astros. It's a funny old world. Martinez has yet to give up a home run after 32 innings of work. Only three earned runs have crossed the plate – and four unearned runs. The Rangers have also given him 7.6 runs per game of support, so again, regression is lurking.

What shall we do about Chris Archer (2.88 FIP)? He's pitched even better for the Rays, who just took two of three off the Boston Red Sox to improve to 15-13 (plus-2.86 units). But Tampa has only won three of Archer's six starts for a deficit of minus-0.63 units. How about a little run support? Those 2.17 runs per game aren't going to cut it. We're going to stick with Martinez and the Rangers, but only because there's a tiny total of seven runs on the MLB Odds board for this matchup.

Free MLB Pick: Take the Rangers at GTBets

 

Houston at L.A. Angels (10:05 p.m. ET)
Speaking of regression, it seems the Astros (18-10, plus-8.66 units) are coming back down to Earth after getting smoked by their in-state rivals. But none of those three games featured Collin McHugh (3.68 FIP), who has followed up his breakthrough 2014 rookie season with a 5-0 team record and 5.2 units in earnings. McHugh's throwing a lot more sliders this year, so his strikeouts are down a bit, but so are his walks, and he's inducing more ground balls, as well. Mmmm... sliders.

The Angels were 12-15 and 4.89 units in the red going into Wednesday's late-nighter against the Seattle Mariners. Hector Santiago (4.79 FIP) doesn't make us want to scurry for the UNDER this time; he's got the OVER at 4-1 in his five starts, with a team record of 2-3 (minus-1.84 units). And that's after stranding 85.2 percent of base runners. We'll take our chances with the Astros, and may the sphere be with you.

Free MLB Pick: Take the Astros at 5Dimes

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