MLB Picks of the Day: Best Three Plays Worthy of Your Bets

Jason Lake

Thursday, April 23, 2015 11:24 AM GMT

If you’re looking for someone to crush the MLB odds, can we suggest the New York Mets? Yes, the Mets. They’ve made more profit than anyone else this year, & they lead our 3-pack of MLB picks.

Jason's 2015 moneyline record as of Apr. 22: 5-5, minus-0.49 units

Every once in a while, we catch ourselves moralizing here at the home office. It’s something we’re learning to avoid – we even gave up watching our favorite grumpy sportscaster and following our favorite grumpy alternative sports feed. But there is a connection between the corrupt and the inept, and when you get a particularly messed-up team on your handicapping plate, you’ve got a tremendous fading opportunity. Just look at the New York Mets, for example.

What’s that? The Mets are the best team in Major League Baseball right now? They’re 12-3 and 9.54 units in the black? Oh. In that case, let’s put them in our MLB picks while the picking is good. The Mets lead off our latest tripleheader of tasty teams to consider from Thursday’s busy slate.

 

Atlanta vs. N.Y. Mets (1:10 p.m. ET)
What exactly happened to Bartolo Colon (3.37 FIP) in 2010? Was he eaten by a space alien who then assumed his form, only larger? Because Colon has been solid since he reappeared with the New York Yankees in 2011. And he just keeps chugging along as he approaches age 42. So far this year, Colon has a 3.37 FIP and 3.67 units of profit on a 3-0 team record.

Yet Colon, along with everyone else in the majors as we go to press, is staring up at Atlanta’s Julio Teheran (plus-3.80 units) on the MLB money list. Teheran has been getting away with murder, though: He has a 6.19 FIP, and the Braves (8-6, plus-3.67 units) have outscored their opponents 15-11 in his three starts. Teheran’s not normally this shaky, but he’s lost velocity on his fastball and is throwing more sliders this year. It’s not working.

Free MLB Pick: Take the Mets

 

Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee (1:40 p.m. ET)
Let’s beat up on the Brewers (2-13, minus-12.05 units) while they’re down. They’ve got the largest debt in the majors, they’re last in the National League among their position players at minus-0.6 WAR, and Kyle Lohse (5.88 FIP) has had a dreadful 2015 campaign thus far. Things are bound to improve, based on Lohse’s 3.79 xFIP and his .357 BABIP, but for now, he’s near the bottom of the money pile at minus-3.54 units.

Cincinnati (8-7 SU, plus-1.53 units) responds with Homer Bailey, who made his 2015 debut last week after starting the season on the DL with a torn right flexor tendon. Bailey coughed up five runs in a 5-2 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals (–140 at home), but his pitches didn’t look all that bad, and some rust can be expected after a layoff like that.

Free MLB Pick: Take the Reds at BookMaker

 

Boston vs. Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. ET)
We might never figure out what the heck is going on with Clay Buchholz (3.07 FIP). His numbers, just like his performance, has been all over the map this year, and he burned us when we tried to support him two weeks ago against the New York Yankees. Buchholz is 1.30 units in the red on a team record of 1-2, but he’s striking out 10.47 batters per nine innings, impressive enough to keep the Red Sox (9-6, plus-1.62 units) from getting good MLB odds in this matchup.

We’ll throw our support instead behind the small-market Rays (7-8, minus-0.62 units) and their anonymous superstar, Jake Odorizzi (2.11 FIP). He’s only in his second year as a starter, and he’s pitching up a storm, leading Tampa to 1.21 units in earnings on a team record of 2-1. As a rookie, Odorizzi posted a 3.75 FIP, but the Rays were shut out in six of his 31 starts, and he coughed up 8.69 units on a record of 13-18. We expect better things this year.

Free MLB Pick: Take the Rays