MLB Picks: Tanaka & Yankees to Dominate AL Wild Card Game at Home

Charles Stark

Tuesday, October 6, 2015 12:29 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2015 12:29 PM UTC

It's time for the MLB playoffs and we have a great game today between the Astros & Yankees. In what's pretty close to just a pick right now I'm going to back the Bombers getting better value.

MLB odds
The MLB odds makers came out making the Houston Astros a small favorite of around -110. The line has moved a little bit but for me I like the value on the Yankees right now getting them at +108 at Bovada. For my MLB pick of the day this is a good value play.


Houston Astros
Dallas Keuchel takes the mound for the Astros with a 2.48 ERA, 1.02 whip, 216 strikeouts, and a 20-8 record. With him on the mound it does make sense for Houston to be the favorite in this spot because he has had a tremendous year. This is the playoffs so a lot of statistics you can throw out the window but one that jumps out at me is his record and ERA on the road. This season away from Houston he has a 3.77 ERA with batters hitting .253 against him, and a 5-8 record. He pitched one time though in Yankee Stadium and he was stellar allowing just three hits over seven innings. Still, being that this game is not in Houston I think gives us good value to go ahead and back the Yankees.

Houston ranks sixth in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.50, second in OPS at .752, and 21st in batting average hitting .250 as a team. Their runs per game really changed whether they are in Houston or on the road but they have a dismal 33-48 record away from Houston. Like I mentioned though this is the playoffs and that might not matter so much. At the end of the day going against Houston on the offensive end though is mostly based on the fact I think they're going to have a tough time today against Yankee starting pitcher Mashiro Tanaka.


New York Yankees
Tanaka takes the mound for the Yankees and comes in with a 3.51 ERA, 0.99 whip, 139 strikeouts, and a 12-7 record. I was able to watch him pitch in Japan for a few years and the guy is a flat out grinder. There is good value on him today simply for this fact, he has been in big game situations before and I look for him to deliver today. He is coming off a rough start against the Red Sox in which he allowed four earned runs in just five innings, but besides that in his last five home games he has been solid. In his last start prior to the game against Boston he allowed zero earned runs off of four hits in seven innings to the league's best hitting team in the Toronto Blue Jays. I expect Tanaka to come out today and be extremely tough to beat.

The Yankees rank second in runs per game at 4.72, fifth in OPS at .744, and 17th in batting average hitting .251 as a team. For the most part most of their offensive statistics go up just a bit in New York, but they have been formidable at the plate whether home or away the season. Although they struggled against Keuchel their only chance at home this season they have been solid against left-handers ranking second in the American League in runs scored per against while being sixth in at-bats against southpaws. Ultimately the Yankees should be good to get a few runs today and let Tanaka dominate on the mound.


Betting Analysis
For me this game comes back to the value in getting the Yankees at a pick to a little bit of plus money is fine by me. This should be a really fun game to watch but I'm going to give the nod to the Yankees at home and for one of your MLB picks I recommend you do the same.

MLB Pick: New York Yankees +108 at Bovada

comment here