MLB Picks: Take Red Hot Home Underdog Rangers vs Orioles

Ross Benjamin

Monday, June 20, 2016 12:00 PM GMT

Monday, Jun. 20, 2016 12:00 PM GMT

Our MLB analyst breaks down Monday’s American League matchup between the Orioles and Rangers. Go inside to read this insightful betting article culminated with a MLB pick.

What can be considered a rare scheduling quirk, especially so during June, Baltimore and Texas will play a single game series on Monday at “The Ballpark” in Arlington. Tonight will be a makeup date stemming from one of four scheduled games in Arlington earlier this year being canceled due to inclement weather. Texas went 2-1 in the other three played in that set, and each of those games went over the total. The current MLB Odds has Baltimore listed as a -120 money line favorite, and the posted total is 9.5.

 

Baltimore Starter Struggling
Kevin Gausman has recently endured some rough outings. The Orioles right-hander has compiled a poor 6.15 ERA and 1.56 WHIP during his last five starts. He’s also 0-3 in his previous three team starts on the road with a large 7.54 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Since 2015, Baltimore is 3-11 versus teams with a losing record when Gausman is their starter.


 

Disparity in Home/Away Splits for Holland
Derek Holland has an awful 6.31 ERA during eight road starts this season. However, at home has been a drastically different story. Holland has posted a stellar 3.33 ERA and 1.19 WHIP during five starts in Arlington. This will be Holland’s first start of the year versus Baltimore. During his lone start in 2015 versus the Orioles, Holland tossed a complete game 3-hit shutout while striking out 11 and walking none.

 

Superb at Home and Average on the Road
Heading into this week’s action, Baltimore has gone an outstanding 26-12 (.684) at home, and just 14-16 (.467) during away games. The Orioles are 3-6 at Arlington during the last two seasons.

It’s also worth noting, Baltimore is 10-0 over the total on the road this year when there’s a total of 9.0 or 9.5. Those ten games have produced a combined average of 13.1 runs scored per outing.

 

Rangers on Fire
Texas is coming off an impressive three game sweep of the Cardinals at Busch Stadium in St. Louis this past weekend. They’ve now won six in a row, and are a sizzling 22-6 over their last 28 games. The Rangers are also an exceptional 22-7 (.759) during its previous 29 games at home.

 

Final Take and Pick
It’s very rare I go against a reverse betting pattern. Texas opened as a -128 money line favorite, and now finds themselves as an underdog, despite 67.9% of bets being made on Baltimore thus far. Considering we have a red-hot team, and they’re facing a struggling starting pitcher, it’s easy to understand why I opted for the home underdog as one of my Monday MLB Picks.

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Free MLB Pick:  Rangers +110
Best Line Offered:   at Intertops

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