MLB Picks: Surprisingly High Total Means Betting Under ALCS Game 6

Charles Stark

Friday, October 23, 2015 1:07 PM GMT

After scoring eight or more runs in the last four games, MLB odds makers have come out with a very interesting total when the Blue Jays meet the Royals in Game 6 of the ALCS.

MLB odds
MLB odds makers have set the total for this game at 7.5 with some places having it as low as seven. There is a bit of higher juice on under the total with the best odds right now being at 5 Dimes -120. For my MLB pick today I'm going to take under the 7.5.

 

Toronto Blue Jays
David Price takes the mound for Toronto and comes in with a 2.45 ERA, 1.08 whip, 225 strikeouts, and 18-5 record. I'm sure he has heard a lot recently about his overall playoff performance in his career, which is not particularly good. In his one start against Kansas City in the playoffs he allowed five earned runs off of six hits in just over six innings pitch. That alone makes me do a double take on this total. Overall on the year though he has been a grinder on the road with a 2.05 ERA and batters hitting just .220 against him. I look for him to have a solid bounce back day today and pitch well with a quality start.

Toronto hits for .267 team batting average, average 5.47 runs per game, and have an OPS of .791. In games three and five they broke out the bats a bit and had some really clutch hitting. They also had a little bit of success against today's starter Yordano Ventura. Still, their last two games in Kansas City they only managed three runs total in two games and I expect them to struggle a bit today.

 

Kansas City Royals
Yordano Ventura gets the start for Kansas City and comes in with a 4.08 ERA, 1.30 whip, 156 strikeouts, and a 13-8 record. Against Toronto earlier in the series he allowed three earned runs off of eight hits in just over five innings of work. As mentioned, with the runs he allowed combined with Price it does make this total a bit surprising. In fact, in the playoffs he has not been that good allowing nine total earned runs off of 16 hits in 12 innings. I believe this is one of those plays in which it is best to back the number the odds makers have set that doesn't make a whole lot of sense in proportion to these two pitchers playoff performances so far. Ventura does have the kind of stuff to keep good hitters off balance so I will back under the number anticipating he will have a quality start.

Kansas City comes in hitting .269 as a team, averaging 4.55 runs per game, and have an OPS of .736. For most of the series they have swung the bats really well. Today though, although they may score a few, I'm going to side with starter David Price to limit the damage. They have hit him pretty well this season in two opportunities but he does have a 2.93 ERA against them.

As mentioned, this is an interesting line which on initial glance looks quite low at just 7.5. I think odds makers though have this game correct and I don't anticipate these two offenses to have the same type of production as they have had the past four games. Look for real pitcher's duel and for one of your MLB picks I recommend taking under the total in what should be a game that goes down to the final innings.

MLB Pick: Blue Jays & Royals UNDER 7.5 (-115) at Pinnacle