MLB Picks: Start The Weekend Strong With Two Of Tonight's Money Match-Ups

Friday, April 22, 2016 12:49 PM GMT

Expert capper spots a totals line which can't be placed high enough, and another starter that is due to run into trouble for tonight's MLB picks.

2016 YTD MLB: 5-3-0, +1.80 Units
There’s a huge card of Friday night MLB action this week, even if we are watching the NHL and NBA playoffs on other channels. Let’s dig into the MLB odds boards and see if we can’t find some value as we start the weekend.

Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Seattle continues their long road trip by going to Anaheim on Friday night, but gets a boost by the return of Felix Hernandez on the mound. The King sits tied among Mariner batters in strikeouts coming into this game, and will become the franchise leader after his first K. However, there are a few batters in the Angels’ lineup that give Hernandez fits, and by a few, I mean one, Mike Trout. Trout has a career .354 average off of Hernandez with 4 home runs over 65 at bats. Hernandez will give up his customary one or two runs against the Angels in this game, he owned a 1.80 ERA against the Halos in 2015.

So why the over call here? That would be because of spot starter Nicholas Tropeano of the Angels, who is getting the start instead of the injured Andrew Heaney. Sure, Tropeano has a 0.84 ERA to start the year over 10.2 innings pitched, but all of his luck statistics indicate that a reversal is near. He’s stranding an amazing (and unsustainable) 93.3% of runners on base, and has a FIP well above his ERA at 2.49. He has also amassed this great start against two of the worst offenses in the league, the Minnesota Twins and Oakland Athletics.

The Mariners offense is better than it used to be, and in this game we will have a result that really indicates that a #5 starter is going for the Angels. Take over 7 runs in this game as one of your Friday night picks (Take the M’s too while you are at it).

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Free MLB Pick: Over 7
Best Line Offered: at Heritage 

 

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
A convergence of factors is combining in the Mile High City that could make this game extremely high scoring. We will start with the weather in that it will be unseasonably warm in Denver on Friday. That has the ball carrying a bit more. More importantly though, as Friday night rolls around, and through the weekend actually, the wind will start to pick up from the southwest. If I remember my pub crawl in Denver correctly, this means that the wind will be blowing directly out of the stadium, which is where some balls should end up on Friday night.

Yes, 11 is a big number to clear, but you have the 4th and 7th ranked offenses in all of baseball going up against possibly the weakest starters on each side of the ball. Add to that the fact that the Rockies average 5.40 runs per game and the Dodgers 4.73 runs per game and the number 11 doesn’t seem to high after all.

Going for the Rockies will be Jon Gray, who is making his regular season debut in this sacrificial lamb situation with the weather. Gray had 9 starts last year while compiling a 5.53 ERA, 40/14 K/BB ratio, 1.62 WHIP, and .319 batting average against in 40.2 innings pitched. He does have promise in that he ran a 2.70 ERA away from Coors Field, but at home he atrocious. Gray put up an 8.27 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, and .391 batting average against at home last year. Confidence will not be high.

Starting for the Dodgers will be veteran Scott Kazmir, who has had two bad starts in a row and is dealing with a drop in velocity. His ERA is currently sitting at 6.43. This will be Kazmir’s second start in Coors field; in the first he gave up 2 home runs over six innings.

Needless to say, make sure your daily fantasy lineups have plenty of Rockies and Dodgers in them, and take over 11 runs in this game as one of your MLB picks for tonight.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 11
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline