MLB Picks: Side With The Marlins & Take A Bite Of The Under Against Giants

José Fernández

Monday, August 8, 2016 1:58 PM GMT

The Giants' Johnny Cueto and the Marlins' Jose Fernandez will lock up in a battle between two of the most dominant pitchers in the National League. Let's review this matchup, as well as the MLB odds, and cash a ticket.  

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins  
Maybe the cooler is over after we finally got one into the winner's circle yesterday. Yes, after two weeks of struggling and an 0-4 mark in the Mets/Yankees series it was more than refreshing to watch the Nationals, whom I selected in my MLB picks on Sunday, edge the Giants by the score of 1-0. We also picked up a little juice in that cover as well because the MLB odds makers tagged Washington as the home dog which means we enjoyed a return of +109 on our gambling dollar.

So, after a peak of hitting at a 70 percent clip just a few weeks ago, we are down to a more modest, though highly profitable, 63.4 percent on the MLB season. As of this moment, a $100 bettor is up $2375 and there's nothing wrong with that, particularly when you consider the bargain basement price of these picks is a very reasonable...$0.0.

Four to five days per week I take a bite at the apple and if you want to know when my picks are released, follow me on Twitter @SwingeratSBR and get them fresh off the press. Let's get back to business as we study up on the Giants/Marlins Monday night matchup.

 

Aces in the Pocket Monday Night
Two dominating pitchers will be on the hill tonight as 30-year-old Johnny Cueto and 24-year-old Jose Fernandez will attempt to out-dazzle the other in what should be a low-scoring affair. Johnny Cueto (13-3, 2.73 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) has not been as brilliant in his last two appearances as he has been this season. In his last outing, he allowed four runs on seven hits in a 5-4 loss to the lowly Philadelphia Phillies. And in his start prior to that, he allowed three runs on eight hits in just five innings of work in a 4-2 loss to the Nationals.

Like his opposing number tonight, Jose Fernandez (12-6, 2.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) has also had two successive mediocre performances. In his last start, the Cubs tagged him for three runs on eight hits and handed the Marlins a 3-2 setback. In his previous start to that, Fernandez was done in by the Cardinals for five runs over five innings of work, resulting in a 5-4 loss as a -240 home favorite.

 

Betting Analysis
Subpar performances are few and far between for the truly elite hurlers which mean that Cueto and Fernandez should be more than ready to redeem themselves tonight. Neither club is offensively prolific as the Giants are in the middle of the pack in run production while the Marlins, though impressive in terms of batting average (3rd) and on-base percentage (5th), are averaging just 4.2 runs per game which place them 21st in the majors.

Like the Giants, a team that has dropped 15 of their last 21 games, the Marlins have been only marginally better with 10 losses in their last 18 contests. However, the Marlins' bats have been hot as evidenced by the 5.75 runs per game they have averaged over their last dozen games. In addition, Giants' pitcher Johnny Cueto has a far more pedestrian 4.18 career ERA against Miami than his season ERA would lead you to believe.

If there is one final reason I lean towards Miami in this matchup, it would be the remarkable 30-4 home record that the Marlins boast when Fernandez gets the start at Marlins Park. Another impressive stat is the Marlins 21-7 record when Fernandez faces a team with a winning record - like the Giants. Miami is also 4-0 over the Giants in their last four games at Marlins Park dating back to 2014.

This is a double dipper for me. I am siding with the Marlins and can't help but take a bite on the under in this game as Cueto’s last five starts against a team with a winning record have gone low. Furthermore, the under is 8-1 in Fernandez’s last nine starts when he's pitching on five days of rest.


Free MLB Pick: Marlins -145 & Under 6 ½ -101
Best Line Offered: Marlins -145 at Pinnacle & Under 6 ½ -101 at BetDSI
Swinger’s MLB Record: 59-34, +23.75 units

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