MLB Picks: Side W/ The Underdog As White Sox Beat Unsuspecting Mets

Wednesday, June 1, 2016 1:01 PM GMT

The White Sox snapped their seven game slide with a win over the Mets yesterday, and with that in mind let’s analyze this afternoon’s rubber match and cash a ticket in our MLB picks.

Swinger’s 2016 MLB Record: 25-15, +9.40 Units

Chicago White Sox (28-25, +2.1 units)
The White Sox have seen their early season success unravel recently with a string of losing efforts caused by coughing up late leads, which have led to defeats. That was far from the case yesterday as it was the Southsiders doing the rallying, and securing a 6-4 victory by plating three runs in the eighth inning to turn what was once a four-run deficit into a two run victory.

In addition to the offense awakening the most heartening aspect of the win had to be the immaculate work of the bullpen crew. Chicago’s starter Mat Latos was touched for two earned runs but the quartet of Zach Putnam, Dan Jennings, Nate Jones and David Robertson doused the Mets offense which was a welcome change from the bullpen that had been throttled for 18 earned runs, 25 hits and 12 walks in their previous eight contests. The White Sox were also thieves on the base paths, stealing four in yesterday’s game which was their highest total in almost five years.

 

New York Mets (29-22, -0.5 units)
The Mets awoke this morning in second place, trailing the Washington Nationals by two games in the NL East. After losing to the White Sox yesterday they are 6-4 over their last 10 games and will look to capture the series in this afternoon’s rubber match with Chicago. New York’s offense is mired in the bottom third in three of the four major statistical categories: team batting average (.231, 28th), runs scored (194, 25th), on base percentage (.307, 23rd) but ranked 12th in slugging percentage with a .413 average.

Jacob deGrom (3-1, 2.81 ERA) gets the starting assignment for the Metropolitans this afternoon and will look to build upon one of his most impressive efforts of the season when he held the Dodgers to just one run on three hits over seven innings of work in Friday’s 6-5 win. The 27-year-old righty had not been nearly as razor sharp in his previous four outings as evidenced by his 4.63 ERA in those contests.

Betting Analysis
The White Sox hand the ball to 32-year-old Miguel Gonzalez (0-1, 4.50) who will make his sixth start of the season after allowing three runs and eight hits in six plus innings of work in a 7-5 defeat at Kansas City last Friday. He has never faced the Mets in his career but he may be getting a break here against a weak hitting New York offense, particularly after posting solid performances in his last two appearances. He has been a tough luck pitcher this season between a combination of little offensive support or weak performances from his bullpen.

The oddsmakers are making Gonzalez a significant underdog in this one and we believe that there is plenty of betting value here in our MLB picks. As good as Jacob deGrom can be, he floundered over his previous four starts until putting together an excellent performance against the Dodgers in his last outing. I am simply unimpressed with the Mets offense this season and cannot stomach backing them as big home chalk against a White Sox team that will most certainly be buoyed by their 6-4 come-from-behind victory last night.

Let’s take a flier on the road dog here and watch the White Sox get back to their winning ways. Though their offense is not much better than their opponents, the difference between these clubs and their respective starting pitchers is not great enough to justify the MLB odds in this one. We will side with the underdog here.

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Free MLB Pick: White Sox +153
Best Line Offered: at Bovada