MLB Picks: Sharp Bettors Have Their Eye On Blue Jays' Runline -1.5 vs. Red Sox

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, April 8, 2016 3:11 PM UTC

Friday, Apr. 8, 2016 3:11 PM UTC

The Boston Red Sox visit Toronto for this 3-game weekend set at the Rogers Centre. Will Kelly save the Red Sox? MLB pick right here.

Boston Red Sox (Kelly) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Stroman)
 We will waste no time lining up with the Blue Jays for much of the weekend and at least for tonight be doing so on the run line.  This, despite the fact, Toronto won just 4/10 from Boston on this field last year.

The peripatetic Boston Red Sox are again expected to challenge this Toronto team and NYY for AL East superiority.  That would be a crapshoot in my opinion, as this team has won 78 or fewer games in 3 of the last 4 seasons.  Success is largely hinged upon the pitching of ace, David Price, and the offensive prowess of Big Papi.  

That worked in Boston’s favor with a 6-2 win at Cleveland in the Opener, but without Price on the mound in Game 2, Boston fell behind 5-2 and never recovered in a 7-6 loss to the Tribe.  Today, this overrated team, who is just 72-90 on the road L2Y, travels to face a dangerous Toronto team, who tied for the most home wins in the AL with a 53-28 record. 

Toronto returned for their home opener, after a 4-game split in Tampa Bay.  The Blue Jays won the first 2 games 5-3, but failed in the next 2 by scores of 3-2 and 5-3.  Tonight, they send Marcus Stroman to the hill, who has had great success (both on this field against Boston and in his Opener).  Pitching the 1st game for Toronto, Stroman worked 8+ IP, allowing just 3 runs in the 5-3 win vs. the Rays.  


Betting Analysis
On this field, Stroman has made 16 starts with a 10-2 record and 2.20 ERA.  He has also been outstanding vs. the Red Sox against whom he is a perfect 4-0 in 4 starts with a 1.26 ERA, working 7 or more innings in each start.  That is far dichotomous to the work of his mound opponent, Kelly, who in 5 starts vs. the Jays has a 5.52 ERA. 

In recent seasons, the words “Toronto on the Run Line” have become synonymous with the words “Play Ball.”  In the last 2 seasons, 80 of 99 Toronto home wins have come by 2 or more runs, including 44 of 53 last season.  Lay the Blue Jays behind Stroman on the run line for another resounding home win in their Opener at the Rogers Centre.

I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.

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NBA Pick:  Toronto -1.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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