MLB Picks: Series Coverage for Reds vs. Padres

Darin Zank

Monday, June 30, 2014 2:05 PM GMT

Baseball is a strange game; just ask the Reds, who after rolling to a four-game sweep of the Giants in San Francisco over the weekend are now on the verge of getting swept by the Padres. Which way should we go with our free MLB pick on Wednesday's series finale (3:40 pm ET)?

 

2nd July
Reds vs. Padres Game 3

By: Ron Patrick

 

Wednesday's Betting Odds
As of early Wednesday AM Cincy and Johnny Cueto could be found at -130 at 5Dimes, while San Diego and Tyson Ross could be gotten at +125 at Bovada. Also, most books were listing the total on today's game at six runs.


Tuesday Re-Hash
San Diego, the most woeful offense in baseball, rapped out 16 hits, using a four-spot in the seventh to pull away for an 8-2 victory. The Padres won at a post-time price of -105, and to our chagrin the game, which was 3-1 going into the bottom of the seventh, played 'over' its total of 6.5 runs.


Wednesday's Whirlers
Hard-luck Ross (6-8, 3.18) is 10/17 on quality starts this year, and two for his last two. Last Friday he held Arizona to two runs through seven innings, and just before that he held the Dodgers to two ER through seven innings. San Diego has lost Ross' last five starts, providing a total of four runs of offensive support. For the season Ross has allowed 95 hits in 108 innings, walked 42 and struck out 102. The Padres are 7-10 in Ross' starts, with the totals skewing toward the 'unders' by a 12-4 margin. Ross has started twice against Cincinnati in his short career (including a winning performance back on May 15), allowing a total of two runs and seven hits through 14 innings. San Diego won both those games, and both played 'under.'

Cueto (8-5, 1.88) is 15/17 on quality starts, which is absolutely super, and four for his last four. Last Friday he held the Giants to two runs through 8 1/3 innings, and over his last four outings he's allowed just five ER through 28 1/3 innings. On the season Cueto has allowed just 75 hits through 124 innings, walked 29 and struck out 122. Cincy is 10-7 in Cueto's starts, with the totals leaning 'under' 9-7. Cueto started against San Diego back on May 15 and threw a dandy, going the full nine innings, allowing just three hits while whiffing eight in a 5-0 Reds victory.


Free Pick for Wednesday
The Padres scored eight runs Tuesday; they won't come close to that against Cueto. Meanwhile, Ross has quietly been rather tough this season. So we'll go with the 'under' six runs at the -113 offered at 5Dimes for today's free MLB pick

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1st July
Reds vs. Padres Game 2

By: Ron Patrick

 

Tuesday's Betting Odds
As of Tuesday AM the best deal we could find on Cincy and Mike Leake was the -104 offered at Pinnacle, while San Diego and Ian Kennedy could be gotten at -104 at Bet365.

Most books are also listing the total on Tuesday's game at 6.5 runs.

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Monday Re-Hash
San Diego manufactured a run in the fifth inning, and starter Jesse Hahn and four relievers made that run stand, holding Cincy to five hits, whiffing 12, for a 1-0 Padres victory. San Diego won at a price of -105, and the game never threatened its total of 6.5 runs, much to our delight. According to Yahoo Sports the San Diego bullpen has allowed just one run through it's last 30 2/3 innings of work.


Tuesday's Twirlers 
Kennedy (5-9, 4.01) is 8/17 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last four. Last Wednesday he gave up four runs and nine hits in 6 1/3 innings against the Giants, and over his last four outings he's given up 16 ER and 30 hits in 23 2/3 innings.

On the season Kennedy has allowed 100 hits in 103 innings, while posting a 111/27 K/BB ratio. San Diego is 7-10 in Kennedy's starts, with the totals skewing toward the 'unders' by a 12-5 margin.

Kennedy has started twice against the Reds since the beginning of last season, giving up seven ER and 14 hits in 14 innings; both those games played 'under'.

Leake (6-6, 3.41), a San Diego native, is 8/16 on quality starts, and two for his last two. Last Thursday he held San Francisco to one run through eight innings, whiffing 12, and just before that he also limited Toronto to one run through eight frames.

For the season Leake has allowed 101 hits in 108 innings, walked 23 and struck out 84. Cincy is 7-9 in Leake's starts, with the totals leaning 'under' 8-6.

Since the beginning of last season Leake has started three times against the Padres, allowing just two ER and 12 hits through 22 innings; all three of those games played 'under.'


Free Pick for Tuesday
We won with the 'under' on Monday's contest, and we don't see any reason to change that line of thinking for today. So we'll go with the 'under' 6.5 runs at the -115 offered at Will Hill for our free pick on Tuesday's game.

 

30th June
Reds vs. Padres Game 1

By: Ron Patrick

 

Reds-Pads Betting Odds
As of Monday morning the best price we could find for Game 1 on Cincy and Mat Latos was the -119 offered at Pinnacle, while San Diego and rookie Jesse Hahn could be found at +113 at BetOnline. Also, most books were listing the 'over/under' for Monday at 6.5 runs.

The Reds could also be gotten at around +140 on the run line.

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Series Set-Up
San Diego just dropped two of three games at home against Arizona, avoiding the sweep with a 2-1 victory Sunday. The Padres have lost six of their last eight series, and 17 of their last 26 games.

At 35-47 San Diego sits in fourth place in the NL West, 11 games behind the Giants and Dodgers.

Meanwhile, Cincy just swept a four-game series in San Francisco, winning Sunday 4-0. The Reds have won five series in a row and 14 of their last 18 games.

At 43-38 Cincy is now tied for second place in the NL Central with St. Louis, 6.5 games behind first-place Milwaukee.

This is the second meeting this season between these two teams. Back in May the Padres went into Cincinnati and took two of three games, with all three games playing 'under' on the totals.


Monday's Starters
Hahn (3-1, 2.38), a 6-5 righty, is three-for-four on quality starts since coming to the Big Leagues earlier this month. Last time out he held San Francisco to two runs through six innings, and over his last three starts he's allowed just two ER through 19 innings.

For the season Hahn has allowed 16 hits in 22 2/3 innings, walked eight and struck out 27. San Diego, a team that's 12 games under .500 overall, is 3-1 in Hahn's starts, with the totals leaning toward the 'unders' by a 3-1 margin.

Earlier this year at Double-A San Antonio Hahn threw 38 innings, giving up 34 hits and nine ER, with 14 walks and 33 strikeouts.

Latos (1-0, 2.89) will be making his fourth start of this season, after missing time recovering from off-season elbow surgery. In his season debut June 14 he threw six scoreless innings against Milwaukee; then he got nicked for five runs in five-plus innings against Toronto; but last time out he held the Cubs to one run through seven innings.

So for the season the former Padre has allowed 16 hits in 18 2/3 innings, walked three and struck out 11. Cincy is 1-2 in Latos' starts, with the totals going 1-2.

Latos started once against his former team last year, allowing two runs and six hits in six innings of a 4-2 Reds loss.

In the comparison of the bullpens for this series San Diego ranks No. 1 in ERA at 2.38, going 22/25 on save conversions, while Cincinnati ranks 24th in ERA at 4.15, going 22/34 on save chances. But the Reds' pen has been better since getting Aroldis Chapman back.


With the Sticks
Cincy ranks 24th in team OBP at .307 and 20th in scoring at 4.0 runs per game. But the Reds have also scored at least five runs in 10 of their last 18 games.

San Diego ranks dead last in OBP at .272 and in scoring at less than three RPG, and has tallied a total of four runs over its last four games.


Reds-Padres Betting Trends
Cincy has actually been a better team on the road this season, 24-20, than at home, 19-18.

San Diego is 20-23 at home.

The Padres have skewed toward the 'unders' this season by a lopsided 53-25 margin. Also, the totals have leaned 'under' 27-14 in games played at Petco Park.


Free Pick for Monday
With these two starting pitchers going, and San Diego's offensive woes, we like the 'under' 6.5 runs, at the -120 offered at 5Dimes, for our free pick on Monday's contest.