On paper this looks like a tremendous pitching matchup, but at the end of the day I think we will see more runs than the odds makers anticipate.
Odds makers came out with a total of seven for this game and when considering who's on the mound it makes perfect sense. Across the MLB odds board the higher juice is on under the total at this point but that means you can still get good odds at over the total like at Pinnacle Sports at +100.
Derek Holland gets the start for the Rangers and comes in with a 2.37 ERA, 0.86 whip, 25 strikeouts, and a 3-1 record in five appearances so far this season. He just came back from injury August 19 and has pitched pretty well allowing seven earned runs in those four starts including a gem against Baltimore in which he allowed zero earned runs for a complete game shutout. Still, what I do like about this matchup is the fact that Seattle just faced him last month and although they didn't have a lot of success getting just two earned runs they did get eight hits off him in six innings.
Texas ranks eighth in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.40, 13th in OPS at .726, and 12th in batting average hitting .255 as a team. Although most of their offensive statistics go down on the road and they had a rough day at the plate yesterday I like them to have some nice at-bats today against the extremely tough Felix Hernandez. Much like Holland versus Seattle the Rangers also just saw Hernandez back in early August gaining two earned runs off of six hits in seven innings, nothing to shout about but they are familiar enough with him to produce at least a few runs today.
Felix Hernandez takes the mound for the Mariners and comes in with a 3.65 ERA, 1.17 whip, 167 strikeouts, and a 16-8 record. As far as his ERA goes he is arguably having the worst season of his 10 year major league career. He has pitched well overall in his last 10 starts but has not been immune to giving up runs in bunches along with plenty of hits. In four out of those 10 starts he allowed a stunning 44 hits in just 22 innings. He seemed to get some of his swagger back against Oakland these last couple games allowing just five earned runs in 16 innings, but he simply hasn't been as sharp as we are used to seeing. I don't anticipate him shutting down a solid Rangers offense.
Seattle ranks 25th in runs scored per game at 3.99, 15th in OPS at .720, and 24th in batting average hitting .248 as a team. They have actually come a long way since the beginning of the year where they were really struggling at the plate. In the last couple games we have seen some life from them and I look for them to continue that momentum today versus Holland who will probably pitched pretty well against them but not completely shut them down.
When I look at this game as one of my MLB picks today I look at this total and believe it is simply too low. Although it might be tempting to back the under with Holland pitching well recently and the big name of Felix Hernandez don't be swayed. Both these teams can put up some numbers and I expect them to do so today, look for a final well over this low total of seven.
MLB Pick: Over 7 (+100) at Pinnacle