MLB Picks: Searching For Betting Value In Rays vs. Blue Jays Game

Charles Stark

Saturday, April 30, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 30, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

This season neither the Blue Jays nor the Rays have started out very well. Both come in to today's game hovering around .500 on the season, so which will be our MLB Pick tonight?

The MLB odds are making Tampa Bay a solid favorite like at Pinnacle Sports with their -125 moneyline. For one of my MLB picks I will back Tampa Bay laying this number as I like for starting pitcher Chris Archer to have a solid appearance. Toronto is the better hitting team but Tampa Bay has the better pitching starting on the mound and the better pen in my opinion.


Toronto Blue Jays
J.A. Happ gets the start for Toronto and has been superb with a 2.42 ERA and 1.19 whip while Toronto is hitting just .238 as a team which ranks 21st in the major leagues. In his first start of the year Happ pitched really well in this same venue allowing just two earned runs off of seven hits in six innings. In that outing he had an amazing 18 fly ball outs. He is been really good this season but he does come in with a career ERA over 4.00 and sports a 5.12 ERA on the road over his last three seasons.

So far Toronto has not had the same offensive production as they had last year and surprisingly rank in the bottom part of the major leagues in most categories. They are averaging just under 4.00 runs per game ranking 15th in the league and just under eight hits per game ranking them 23rd.

The main issue is that they are striking out way too much averaging around 9.5 per game and ranking 28th in the major leagues in this category. This could spell trouble for them today against a big strikeout pitcher like Archer who although has not been pitching as well as he is capable of had 12 strikeouts against this Blue Jays team in his first start of the year at home.


Tampa Bay
Chris Archer takes the mound and comes in with a 5.47 ERA and 1.75 whip but at home has been spectacular with a 2.12 ERA and 28 strikeouts in three appearances. Everybody knows Archer is one of the best in the American League but he has had a couple tough appearances in this short season. At home he has been lights out and he is coming off a very good appearance in his last outing allowing zero earned runs off of five hits in just under seven innings with 10 strikeouts against Baltimore.

At the plate Tampa Bay, like Toronto, have not been setting the world on fire. They strike out too much averaging over nine per game ranking 26th in the major leagues and they are only averaging 3.38 runs per game which ranks 28th. They also are only hitting .220 as a team which ranks them dead last in the major leagues.

However, against left-handers they have had better success the season hitting .244 with an OPS of .695. Both of those numbers and basically all of their offensive numbers go up against lefties. Add this to the fact that they have one of the better bullpens in the American League makes them a decent value pick even as a favorite.

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Free MLB Pick:  Rays -125
Best Line Offered:  at Pinnacle

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