MLB Picks: Saturday MLB Value Plays

Steven Suarez

Saturday, May 11, 2013 3:06 PM GMT

Let's see if we can beat the books with both of our MLB picks for Saturday. Have we found the best betting value?

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox

The way things have been going for Mark Buehrle and Clay Buchholz, it wouldn't surprise anyone if the Red Sox won this game in blowout fashion.

As of now, Boston is obviously a significant favorite on the MLB odds board. The Red Sox have, however, moved from -210 down to the -190 area, suggesting that the public is liking the value on Toronto. The total is at 9.5 runs.

Buehrle has already been roughed up numerous times this season. His ERA was raised to 7.02 ERA after his latest start in which he gave up nine hits and seven earned runs to a Tampa Bay team that's hardly known for its pop.

The veteran southpaw has now given up five or more earned runs in five of his seven starts in 2013. Buehrle is 0-1 with a 9.77 ERA in three road starts, which doesn't bode well for this trip to Fenway.

Clay Buchholz was unable to log a seventh straight winning decision his last time out, as he had his worst start of the season against Minnesota. He gave up seven hits and four runs, but did have nine strikeouts against two walks in the no decision.

Buchholz's overall numbers are still disgustingly good. He's 6-0 with a 1.60 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, while batters are hitting just .193 against him. Plus, the righty's already shut down the Blue Jays once this season, holding them to two hits and no runs in a 10-1 win 10 days ago.

There's always an inherent risk in taking a favorite on the runline, so we're going to be cautious and back Boston at -1, which allows us to lose some juice on the moneyline.

Pick: Boston Red Sox -1 (-138) for your MLB picks.

[gameodds]3/226399/43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The worst team in the MLB right now? That would be the Dodgers, who have lost eight straight games to fall to 13-21 overall on the season.

Despite the poor play, L.A. is still a considerable favorite (-192) for tonight's date with Miami. The total is low at 6.5 runs, but both pitchers have been excellent so far this season.

For Miami, Kevin Slowey has been one of the few bright spots in what has otherwise been a dim and dismal season for the organization so far. He's allowed three or less earned runs in all seven of his starts, which has translated into a squeaky clean 1.81 ERA.

His last time out, Slowey baffled Philadelphia, holding them to two hits and zero runs in seven innings of work. He struck out seven and walked two en route to his first winning decision of 2013.

Hyun-Jin Ryu meanwhile has been solid for the Dodgers, and though he wasn't near his finest against San Francisco six days ago, he's still proven he can compete with the best here in the States. He's pitched even better than his 3.71 ERA may indicate.

In three home outings, Ryu has gone 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA, while recording 23 strikeouts and only four walks. That's come against a couple tough offenses in Colorado and San Francisco as well.s

With both pitchers performing at a high level and the Dodgers and Marlins ranked #28 and #30 in runs scored respectively, we believe the UNDER to be the best value MLB pick for tonight's game in Los Angeles. Good luck!

Pick: UNDER 6.5 (+110) at BET365

[gameodds]3/226411/43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Don't forget to also check out Joe Catalano's picks of the day!