MLB Picks: A Run Line Beauty Backed By An 82.4% Situation

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, June 17, 2015 1:56 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 17, 2015 1:56 PM UTC

This run line crusher for the Mets vs. Blue Jays matchup is backed by situations that are 82.4% and 75% winners. Join in and find out what our winning MLB pick is.

NY Mets (Niese) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Hutchison) 7:05 ET
The Toronto Blue Jays entered this 4-game early week set on an 11-game winning streak, averaging 8 RPG.  On Monday, that winning streak was snapped when the Blue Jays gave up 2 runs to the Mets in the bottom of the 11th for a 4-3 loss.  Last night, it was another 1 run defeat for the Blue Jays, as they met the slants of Matt Harvey.  Now, the venue switches to the Rogers Centre, north of the border, where the Blue Jays have a huge home field advantage and we have a hidden mismatch on the mound. We take advantage of this run line beauty which is backed by an 82.4% situation.

The NY Mets' 36-30 record is largely a function of their strong home field, where they are 26-11, including an early April 11-0 run.  Their fortunes have not been as kind on the road, where they stand 10-19.  That record has been even worse when tonight's starter, Niese, takes the mound.  In the 6 starts by Niese on the road, the Mets are 1-5.  For the season, Niese has a 4.24 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.  Niese has pitched poorly in the last month.  The 4 runs he allowed in the 7 innings of his previous start were a bargain compared to his previous 5 starts in which he went 0-4 with a 7.96 ERA.  Consider both the Mets and Niese to be a play against at this venue

Toronto is 20-12 at home this season.  For the year, they have the best offense in baseball with a .784 OPS.  With the Blue Jays having snapped their 11-game winning streak, look for the bounce back on their strong home field.  At first glance, Hutchison is not the answer.  He has a 5.75 ERA.   That implies that his 5-1 record is a function of the strong Toronto batting.  Never is that more true than in his recent start.  He lasted just 2 1/3 IP, allowing 8 runs and 3 homeruns to find his teammates trailing 8-1.  But, the Blue Jay bats bailed him out with a 13-10 win.  A closer inspection finds that the pitching of Hutchison is far better on this mound.  In 6 starts at home, he has a 1.03 home WHIP.  In reviewing this week's article "Splitting the WHIP Part 2" at SBR, we know that any MLB pitcher, who has a 1.10 WHIP or better, home or away, is a positive PLAY ON candidate.  Run line players take note, continuing a trend from recent seasons 28 of 34 (82.4%) Toronto victories have come by 2 or more runs. 

Must line up with the Blue Jays on the run line in this one, considering the home/road dichotomy for both the teams and the starters.  Along with the Toronto revenge motive from a pair of 1-run defeats the previous 2 nights, expect a resounding Toronto home victory tonight.

MLB Pick: Take Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 at BetOnline

Browse the futures odds trading for the MLB World Series

comment here